Archive for the ‘Time Cycles’ category

GUESS ME JISEKI (05)

GUESS ME JISEKI (03) is Turmeric India.

 

The one above is SUGAR DELHI

Bet the first to get 3 of the 5 ‘Guess Me Jiseki’ correct a week and get a week of Orpheus Research for free.

Our Jiseki Time cycles are seasonal patterns of strength or weakness in assets. They are derived from percentile rankings of 0 to 100. The higher the percentile more the chance for an asset to weaken and worst the ranking, better the chance for the respective asset to outperform.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.


The Time Proportion (Indian Nifty)

Looking at ‘Time proportion’ in market or price data is a very old exercise, Benner did it in 1884, Elliott did it in 1934, Frost, Hamilton, Russell, Prechter and a host of other technicians have done it over years. I can count more than 10 time cyclists who also looked at market and economic data and time proportion. Richard Mogey and Bill Meridian have been doing this exercise for decades.
All of the above practitioners know that there are many cycles acting at a certain time so many of them look at time proportion rather than equality. There is also a school which looks at equal cycles. I belong to the time proportionally school of thought which considers time equality as a subset of time proportionality.

Today we have carried a case of studying the time difference in days…

This article was written for ATMA.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives trading and investment signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. Alpha is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.


DOW vs. Time Oscillator

Time Oscillator is a range bound indicator suggesting increase and decrease in time periods. Starting 30 Nov 1988, DOW witnessed a confirming increase in time periods till 30 Sep 1998. From 1998 time oscillator fell till 31 July 2001 along with the prices. Since 30 Apr 2008 the oscillator is falling till date. It is too early to assume that the rise in DOW is a new bull market and 2010 will be a positive year. Till the oscillator sees a further fall till 60-100 levels, the current rise on DOW remains a bear market rally that should correct into 2010.

Primary (multi month) perspective

Intermediate (multi week) perspective

Considering the primary (multi month) time is still pointing lower (above), the intermediate time oscillator at 250 days suggests an intermediate top might be near or already in. Only once since 2002 has the time oscillator breached 300 days.

Minor (multi day) perspective

On the minor time oscillator, the 2009 cycle seems over and prices should get ready to trend. Seeing the minor trend in light of intermediate and primary perspective, any January positivity should be an illusion. The first quarter of 2010 should be negative for DOW.

CYCLES covers global currency pair, global equity, emerging equity, and inter asset cycles. The product studies time cycle, asset outperformance and underperformance signals. The aim is to look at markets as a group and in isolation. This is a monthly perspective product that readers should use in conjunction with our other features like WAVES.GLOBAL , WAVES.INDIA, WAVES.FOREX, WAVES.METALS, WAVES.ENERGY, and other global features. Our economic and psychological world is well connected and cyclical. INTERMARKET CYCLES is a subject coined by us at Orpheus. The subject studies the asset linkages and the fixed periodicity between them. We look at the subject from three aspects. First from the sectoral aspect. As we redefine Equity sector rotation and reclassify global sectors into three broader sectors viz. Early Economic, Mid Economic and Late economic. We juxtapose these three broad sectors on the economic and business cycles. Second we look at subject from the 25-30 year Asset cycles. For example the 30 year Gold cycle and commodity cycle, which is inverse of the 30 year equity cycle or social prosperity cycle. Third we look at inter asset cycles between Gold and Oil, VIX and S&P, Technology and Blue Chips, Local Currency and numerous other asset pairs to look for asset outperformance and underperformance signals.

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