Posts tagged ‘BETFI’

Will ATX Vienna underperform Romanian BETFI?

Starting Jan 2010, ATX has outperformed Romanian BETFI. After 12 months the Rieki performance cycles are extending to the other extreme. Performance is cyclical, so ATX doesn’t have a long way to go in terms of outperformance against Romanian BETFI. The cycles will reverse and ATX will underperform BETFI.  At this stage ATX is running a positive signal on LOSO. While BETFI is still negative.
Enjoy the latest Alpha Early Economic Update.Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.


Alpha.Rom - Elliott and LOSO

Elliott wave is a price pattern theory which suggests the trends move in five wave formations and counter trend moves in three wave structures. After a five wave completes prices retrace in a three wave structure. Orpheus LOSO trending system is slow and seeks price confirmation before reversing. The LOSO tracker will only alert us in case a trend is in place and not otherwise. So in the case of SIF5 till the time counter trend is weak and not challenging the previous down trend SIF5 will remain negative. LOSO is now negative on most financials along with best sell BVB and BRK. SIF2 and SIF4 are the new shorts. BVB and BRK remain the top ranking shorts. BETFI is also negative on LOSO and Rieki.

Domnita Pascut is the founding member of Orpheus Capitals. She started Orpheus in 2005 immediately after her post graduation. The company introduced alternative research products for Indian and Central and Eastern Europe and slowly expanded product line for global assets like Metals, Energy, Agro, Forex, Bonds and Green Assets.

Her interest in charts and market patterns was an extension of her keen understanding of social mood and sentiment. How charts could say so much intrigued her. From early 2005 she worked on market patterns, economic research, cyclicality and economic history. It was her liking for history which helped her see the cyclical natures of markets and patterns. She looks after Orpheus CEE Research and the intraday global research. Domnita gives more weightage to conventional technical analysis, channels, trendlines, market patterns and Fibonacci. She combines all this with basic Elliott structures, performance cycles and high low close bars.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Performance cycles (Rieki) is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Rieki is a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Time is a social construct and we see time through the life and nature around us. Understanding time can not only give a unifying theory to research of a few thousand years, but also help us understand the world we live in. Time evolves, oscillates and continues. Time comes before everything, but we don’t see it. We just feel it. We believe what we see and this is why understanding what we don’t see is a challenge. Understanding time could bring more than a conventional thought down, it’s a revolution, which could rock the very foundation of economic thought or the geometric structures Euclid laid down in 300 BC. We are at the start of the journey, but if time is indeed the real mathematics, we could see high accuracy in time forecasts.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage Romania: Romanian Indices, Stocks, gold, Oil, Dow, CEE Indices (54 assets).


LONG ONLY - ROMANIA

We have included the following indices and stocks. SIF2, SIF5, BRD, ERST, TGN. BET, BETFI, BETNG, BETXT, SNP. Based on reader feedback we will be carrying SUB MINOR ALPHA trades (2-3 days) on our intra day offer TICKS. If you are a short term trader ask for a free trial of TICKS.ROM. Looking forward to your feedback, suggestions and clarifications.

Enjoy the latest ALPHA.ROM

DOWNLOAD THE REPORT ALPHA.ROM.170809

LONG ONLY - ROMANIA

ALPHA is a pair trading, long only and short only strategy product based on TIME fractals.  Time arbitrage, Time Triads, Time fractals are terms coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

TIME ARBITRAGE portfolio has five pairs now viz. BRD-BET, BETXT-SNP, SIF2-SIF5, BRD-BETXT, BET-SNP. The above tracker will be updated on a daily basis. The freshly opened trades will have the shortest holding periods. The type of trade will be depicted in the degree i.e. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). The legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. We are assuming a running stop loss of 4% per traded pair. BRD/BET means LONG BRD, SHORT BET. This also means +A-B. When the pair inverts to BET/BRD, it would mean SHORT BRD, LONG BET meaning -A+B.

LONG ONLY, SHORT ONLY portfolio covers SIF2, SIF5, BRD, ERST, TGN. BET, BETFI, BETNG, BETXT, SNP.

STOP LOSS AND EXITS are activated at 4%

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LONG ONLY - ROMANIA

It was on 22 July we introduced the pairs based on TIME ARBITRAGE. Today we are adding the LONG ONLY ROMANIA portfolio on MINOR (10-30 days) to the existing TIME ANALYTICS offer. TIME FRACTALS can identify and isolate market performance across time frames. We started with pairs and now have added plain assets. On the first impression one might think that the returns seem better on single assets and pairs seem relatively more work. The reality is different. Pairs remain lower on the risk – return profile. While LONG ONLY or SHORT ONLY on single assets are higher on the risk return scale. The LONG ONLY portfolio will be updated every day. We have included the following indices and stocks. SIF2, SIF5, BRD, ERST, TGN. BET, BETFI, BETNG, BETXT, SNP. Based on reader feedback we will be carrying SUB MINOR ALPHA trades (2-3 days) on our intra day offer TICKS. If you are a short term trader ask for a free trial of TICKS.ROM. Looking forward to your feedback, suggestions and clarifications.

Enjoy the latest ALPHA.ROM


RSR AUGUST - BEFORE THE BULL

This has not happened the first time, but happens cyclically. We fall in love with a stock or index and then the love sometimes reduces and sometimes turns to hate. Classical stories are RRC. The top traded stock of one time witnesses lack of trading interest now. Similarly the top index BETFI is witnessing not only less tradability but also poor performance. BRD outperformed BETFI by 40% since 04 MAY and ERSTE outperformed BETFI by 179%. Now for someone in love with BETFI, this is a heartbreak. Your winning horse failed the race coming last and a horse you did not bet on zoomed like a rocket. Was the betting chance or inability to understand performance cycles. When something performs we keep expecting it to outperform and when something underperforms we keep looking for weakness in it. Till the time we can’t separate performers from underperformers, there will be a consistent upsets where we will look at blaming everyone else but our own self. At Orpheus, we are trying to overcome this bias and have started basing our research work first on performance cycles and then on any other forecasting theory. We want to put our money where our mouth is. This is why we will keep a balanced focus on BETC, BET along with BETFI.

About the markets ahead for AUG. RSR has shown some interesting observations yet again. Most of the readings are back in the bullish zone nearing average 70 for both the sentiment groups and time frames under study. What does this mean. This means sentiment has shifted into positive mode after two months of negative readings. However, the drifting that we explained (THE SENTIMENT DRIFT) has never given a reversal in a month. That means after we see sentiment readings turn positive after negativity, it remains positive for atleast two months. This is a generalization but considering markets and humans drift, it is tough not to give market some more space for some further upside before the real crack appears. Whether it is mid August or early September, it is tough to say now, but high sentiment readings should be followed by intermediate negativity not positivity.

Moreover we should not forget that BETFI is still under 20,000 (May highs). It was here in RSR we said “SELL IN MAY and GO AWAY”. Nothing much has changed on our “favorite” BETFI, it is just back to where it was in MAY and even EURO LEI is still where it was (THE FOREX SENTIMENT), in a large trading range. It was in this period that valued members and readers following Orpheus Research were updated with the following stories “BRD outperforming BETFI”, “BETC above 2,200 negative view is challenged’, “Erste hangs over the neckline” and recently the story on “Erste and Tibetian Monk”. The stories clearly suggested that the performance in the market was polarized. A section of the market was winning consistently while the other was stagnating.

In conclusion, despite all signs of some intermediate topping ahead in a week or two, there will be performers. The overall primary more than a year long cycle has also started to see confidence coming back. Any dips now into Q3 should be the last dip for 12-15 months. So get ready to shake out the last round of negativity before the coming BULL MARKET.

PROGNOSIS and ORPHEUS RESEARCH

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ERSTE AND THE TIBETIAN MONK

Hard speculators find it tough to stick around in markets. The volatility of great wealth and bankruptcy cycle gets too much. “I just can’t take it any more. Things will get worse before they get better. So I am quitting”. Is it really that easy to quit, to leave. And even if you leave do you think markets will ever leave you. Till the time you are an economic being and not a meditating monk in TIBET, the markets will be connected to you. You want to do a green job, BPO, the social mood decides how long you will have that job and even if you have that job, there will be currency worries. How much are you worth in Euros or Dollars? The only way out of the market way is spiritualism. A new job is not going to take your miseries away. Oh! Yes there is the luck factor. If you are lucky, you will anyway survive But then luck has cycles too. So when the luck runs out, you still need prayers. ..READ MORE

ERSTE AND THE TIBETIAN MONK


Hard speculators find it hard to stick around in markets. The volatility of great wealth and bankruptcy cycle gets too much. “I just can’t take it any more. Things will get worse before they get better. So I m quitting”. Is it really that easy to quit, to leave. And even if you leave do you think markets will ever leave you. Till the time you are an economic being and not a meditating monk in TIBET, the markets will be connected to you. You want to do a green job, BPO, the social mood decides how long you will have that job and even if you have that job, there will be currency worries. How much are you worth in Euros or Dollars? The only way out of the market way is spiritualism. A new job is not going to take your miseries away. Oh! Yes there is the luck factor. If you are lucky, you will anyway survive

But then luck has cycles too. So when the luck runs out, you still need prayers. So the best thing is to understand the markets that you can’t shake off till you live. Forgive us, we are pushing you hard. But we want to get the message across, making a profit in a market or avoiding a loss is easier in markets than becoming a spiritual peaceful monk.

“In this dead markets” as a few claim we showcased how one can profit. The BETFI vs. BRD pair we showcased delivered 40% over 90 days. This is what we said on 19 MAY. “ BETFI starts underperforming BRD”. We have been talking about many pairs over the last few months. We have some more shocking news for you, if you are one of those who think Romanian markets have no future. As markets change stock selection and investment strategies change. The Orpheus pair strategy revolutionizes stock selection. If BRD was outperforming BETFI and ERST was outperforming BRD then the best stock to pick was ERST. The banking major outperformed by BRD by 127% from the start of the year. “Ok! so what everything moved up”. Yes everything did, but ERST moved up more than BRD. Understanding winners is a part of the game. If you understand them, you will never have to leave the market, as you know the road to becoming a TIBETIAN MONK is much harder.


We have carried the latest performance cycles. Enjoy the latest WAVES.ROM.


WAVES.ROM - BETC, BET AT NEW INTERMEDIATE HIGHS

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WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX

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BETFI. FLAT OR TRIANGLE

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WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX

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INTRODUCING ALPHA ROMANIA

Performance between assets are cyclical and ordered. In continuation of our work on TIME TRIADS and Econohistory, we introduce ALPHA ROMANIA. This is a trending product which carries signal based on performance cycles of Romanian market pairs. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research. We are also working on some anticipatory products linked with time projection, which will extend our analytics based offer.

The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. In the debut product we are carrying backtested results from three pairs (BET-SNP, BET-BRD, SIF2-SIF5). The signals will be illustrated through a BINARY CHART (SLIDE1). A positive 1 will initiate an open pair position and 0 will be a signal to close. We will also be carrying a live performance portfolio tracker.

Despite the fact that the time triads isolate real performance between closely or losely linked pairs, the backtested results illustrate here should be judged critically. The respective results are not adjusted for brokerage fees, bid-ask spreads, slippage and other execution related costs. Conservatively putting we are targeting 30% annualised spot returns. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high networth clients for selective trades.

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications.

Enjoy the latest ALPHA.ROM

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REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ECONOHISTORY research products.

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BETC. ABOVE 2,200-2,250 INTERMEDIATE NEGATIVE VIEW IS CHALLENGED

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WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX

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WAVES.ROM - INTERMEDIATE VS MINOR

This is a perspective product and not a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. Also please keep in mind, we are just illustrating entry points here. For exit time horizon please subscribe to our weekly ECONOHISTORY product.

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WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX

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