Posts tagged ‘Jiseki’

Alpha India - Mid Economic rankings

Punj Lloyd and BHEL are the worst performers of the Indian Mid Economic sector. Both minor structures look like completing W-X-Y corrections down. BHEL continues to hold psychological 2,000 supports. Above respective levels we are waiting for further positive price confirmation. Punj Lloyd also looks like an exhausting structure down. The daily RSI is non-confirming and made a potential double bottom reversal formation. Bharat Forge and Siemens are the best performers of ME. Bharat Forge looks like an ongoing impulsive C/3 wave down which should complete near key Fibonacci supports at 300-280. Siemens looks like a completing ending diagonal structure which suggests a potential intermediate reversal ahead (updated on slide 2).

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


Alpha India Indices - Sector Jiseki cycles special

Nifty. As prices reach key supports near 5,350 levels, the Jiseki cycles remain negative with no sign of reversal yet. We expect the (iii)/(c) wave down to complete near respective supports and a fourth wave bounce back from here. However, a clear break below 5,350 would suggest an extending third wave down which could push lower till previous lows near 4,800.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage India: CNX100 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


BRD (up 25%) and TLV (up 15%) deliver

This is what we said on 7 Dec “This may seem hard to believe, but both TLV and BRD are the best potential outperformers according to the latest pair grid. This is in sharp contrast to the other two financial companies viz. BVB and BRK. The brokerage major and the listed stock exchange company are both the top ranked performers and hence the most expensive in the list of 54 assets we cover in Alpha Romania. We continue to look at an underperformance in BRK and BVB and would reduce it in our Rieki portfolio. We anticipated outperformance in BRD and TLV and will increase the allocations for the respective stocks.  The Pair grid carries the best with the worst. ”

BRD is up 25% since 7 Dec, while TLV is up 15%. This was a clear example of how performance cycles work. The worst outperforms and the best underperforms.

In the latest report we have illustrated Jiseki performance cycles for individual stocks and also for the pair between BRD and TLV. Both BRD and TLV are still positive on performance cycles. Among BRD- TLV (Fig. 3), BRD is still outperforming TLV and is up 25% against TLV since July.

We have updated the latest Alpha Early Economic with other financial majors and BETFI.

Enjoy the latest Alpha Early Economic Update.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.


Shiller’s Fluctuations vs. Temporal Changes

Robert Shiller was not only one of the few to challenge the efficient market theory, as early as 1981 he was also the first to connect fundamental data with market data.

His paper on ‘The Volatility of Stock markets Prices’ published in 1987 uses dividend data and real interest rates to seek evidence that true investment value changes through time sufficiently to justify the price changes. His paper concluded that most of the volatility of the stock market prices appears unexplained.

Shiller’s volatility or fluctuations prove that behavior of markets is not normal. Non normal distribution series is a widely followed proof of inefficiency in prices. He illustrated his fluctuation case (Fig. 2) where he plotted the fluctuations of market prices compared to a fundamental value. The fluctuation in real market were simply too large to explain.

How did we explain Shiller’s fluctuations with temporal changes?

This article is written for ATMA

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Shiller's Fluctuations vs. Temporal Changes

Robert Shiller was not only one of the few to challenge the efficient market theory, as early as 1981 he was also the first to connect fundamental data with market data.

His paper on ‘The Volatility of Stock markets Prices’ published in 1987 uses dividend data and real interest rates to seek evidence that true investment value changes through time sufficiently to justify the price changes. His paper concluded that most of the volatility of the stock market prices appears unexplained.

Shiller’s volatility or fluctuations prove that behavior of markets is not normal. Non normal distribution series is a widely followed proof of inefficiency in prices. He illustrated his fluctuation case (Fig. 2) where he plotted the fluctuations of market prices compared to a fundamental value. The fluctuation in real market were simply too large to explain.

How did we explain Shiller’s fluctuations with temporal changes?

This article is written for ATMA

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Alpha India Indices - The sector filter

Performance is cyclical and works on all timeframes and for all assets. This is why sectors under- and outperform in the same way as individual stocks do. If we look at the three months performances, CNXIT is the top performer with 9.76%, while BSE Realty is the worst with -31.71%. This means that one could have made a 40% profit in three months by simply buying CNXIT and selling BSE Realty.

We looked at the sector performance to filter our top and worst among the various sectors on a multiple time frame or an integrated basis. When we had the best and the worst list of sectors, we knew where to look for stock picking ideas. A worst sector according to performance cycles should outperform and hence should be used for stock picking. While a best sector has already delivered in performance and is expensive. This sector stocks should be avoided in a portfolio.

After the sector filter we shortlisted the best and worst stocks. In the table below we have illustrated the final list of the best sells (reduce) and best buys (hold and accumulates) sector and stocks opportunities.

The top twelve performer stocks, filtered by sector, are: VIP Industries, Titan Industries, Orchid Chemicals, Aurobindo, Canara Bank, HDFC Bank, Bhushan Steel, Tata Steel, Infosys, TCS, Tata Motors and Exide.

The bottom eleven performer stocks (worst rankers) are: United Spirits, Marico, Housing Development and Infrastructure, Hindustan Construction, Gammon, Suzlon, Torrent Power, Reliance Infrastructure, Hindustan Petroleum, Bharat Petroleum and Ackru City.

Enjoy the latest Alpha India.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage India: BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


Alpha India Indices - Sector Jiseki

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage India: BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


Alpha India ME - BSE Capital Goods Jiseki

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage India: BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


Alpha India ME - BSE Metals Jiseki

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage India: BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


Alpha India Indices - Is BSE REAL countercyclical?

Real estate sometimes is considered as an inflation hedge. Real estate has shown a connection with interest rates. Realty is also considered counter cyclical. It moves opposite to the business cycle. When the cycle is up real estate underperforms and vice versa. There are few rules in markets. And if there is a rule, it generally is broken. But looking at market structure would help.

In the ATMA chart of the week we have illustrated…

This article is written for ATMA

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage India: BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria Heads Orpheus India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


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