Posts tagged ‘Rieki Performance Cycles’

Why should you buy COMI?

We are focusing on COMI because it’s one of the worst performer among our global coverage of 1000 assets. Despite being the worst performer the stocks technical structure does not look negative. It’s still above key Fibonacci supports, has RSI momentum positive and looks like an ending corrective countertrend that should find support and reverse soon.

This positive case on COMI suggest many things. One that any negativity on the local market maybe of an intermediate multi week degree and not more, because a secular bear market can break down all accumulating positive looking price structures. We also don’t expect a secular fall in a stock that is one among the worst performers.

Even fundamentally we are talking about a profit making enterprise. The PE multiple near 10 and Price to Book is below 2. This suggests that we have a real value stock. Rieki performance cycle view is also positive. The only problem seems the stocks small capitalization (near 60 Million dollars).

We also compared the stock to BETXT. At this stage BETXT has already outperformed COMI by 35% since Jun 2010. We are expecting a reversal soon on both Rieki pair performance cycle and on the relative performance (black line Fig.3).

Enjoy the latest Alpha Mid Economic

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.


TGN VS. TEL VS. DAFOR VS. XNG

Transelectrica (TEL) is a 472 million dollar market cap Electric Utility, Transgaz (TGN) is a 1 billion dollar market cap Natural gas utility which also features in GICS oil & gas storage & transportation sector, Dafora is a Romanian small cap stock in Oil and Gas drilling and XNG is the AMEX Natural Gas Index. What do they all have in common? All these components are from the late economic sector. How do we find out which one is better for the months ahead and which one to hold and which one to reduce? Is this not what stock picking is about?

Rieki performance cycles have a simple objective answer for this query. Rieki can not only individually illustrate performance cycles of individual assets, but also illustrate seasonality in a pair. If you want to know which component of the pair should outperform the other you can use Rieki. And the best part is that you can make any pair combination.

In Fig. 1 we have illustrated the Rieki pair performance cycle between TGN and TEL. As one can see the cycle (red dashed) line was up from Jan 2010 till Jan 2011. This mean that TGN outperformed TEL by  almost 30% in the year. And now the Rieki cycle for the pair has turned down and also the relative performance line has broken a key trendline support. This means it’s time for TGN to underperform TEL. Since start of the year,  TGN has already underperformed TEL by 15% and we think there is more to come.

Now since both TGN and TEL are the absolute best performers and are overstretched, we need a stock that should outperform TEL. We paired Dafora with TEL (Fig 2.). What did we observe? We saw that after underperforming TEL by nearly 80%, Dafora – TEL Rieki is turning up. When this happens Tel should underperform Dafora. And where does Dafora stand globally? We paired it with AMEX natural gas index XNG. What did we observe?  XNG – Dafora Rieki is reversing. This means Dafora is potentially the best to accumulate while for TEL and TGN, the Rieki stock filter suggests reduce.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.


Copper vs. Dollar

In this latest report of Alpha Global we have looked at a combination of commodities with forex pairs. The charts below illustrate the Rieki performance cycle of Comex Spot Copper (.BRHG) and PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP). The Dollar Index Bullish Fund Rieki has not reversed yet and is still bottoming while Copper Spot is rising and has reached the top 100 performance among our global coverage. Neither Copper or Dollar have shown any indication of reversal. However, if we extend the metals case to silver and gold, we observe that performance Rieki has already reversed. A similar exhaustion case is visible from Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar. We need further price confirmation on dollar and the commodity complex to look for a primary reversal. But the intermediate reversal seem to be in. We have illustrated Crude, EURUSD Elliott counts and key levels.

Coverage Global: S&P500 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities, Bonds and Currencies

Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Senior Technical Analyst at Aditya Birla Money covering Indian Equity Markets. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti will be covering Forex in her weekly columns.


Short GE, Long COMI

For performance it does not matter whether the stock is in a frontier market or a top traded market. Rieki performance cycles are extreme and bottoming for COMI while they are moving sideways for GE. The industrial global blue chip is not a top ranked performer among our coverage of nearly 700 assets. However GE compared to COMI is at a performance cycle top. This suggests that COMI should outperform the global major.

Technically we don’t have any negative reversal on COMI, we continue to look at any dips on the stock to accumulate.  Technically the stock is still above key supports near 0.45 levels. We expect the supports to hold. The LOSO trending tracker has not turned positive yet. We are expecting a reversal there too.

We have updated the latest Alpha with other Rieki cycles for Romanian Industrial majors.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.


The Dow Rieki

Dow Jones Industrial is not the best, but is near the top.  Being an index we don’t expect rankings to push higher till 10 or higher. The Rieki crossover is negative. We continue to looking at a topping performance case on Dow as it moves higher. Irrespective of popular belief Dow should underperform the top 50 global assets.


Comi vs. Cmp

Now that Condmag (COMI) has reached the bottom worst ranking stock in the Alpha 54 universe, it is time to revisit the industrial major. We consider performance cyclical. Hence the worst ranking performers are buy opportunities for us. To prove our point we have matched Compa (CMP) with COMI in a Rieki pair cycle. The oscillator is bottoming suggesting that after falling 14% against CMP, it is time for COMI to outperform against it’s industrial peer.
Even individually (paired against LEU), COMI has a bottoming Reiki. Technically when a stock fails to fall below 0.382 Fibonacci supports, it is showing strength. We continue to look at a reversal on the stock from current levels. The LOSO is negative now. We will wait for a LOSO positive signal to buy COMI for a holding period of few months.

Enjoy the latest Alpha Romania Indices. Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.


Jiseki India Health Care Rankings

Rieki and Jiseki are Japanese words for performance and performance cycles. Since we are speaking of multiple degrees of time, we use Rieki for performance cycle on one degree of Time and Jiseki for an integrated performance cycle for multiple degree of Time. Performance cycles are created from relative performance ranking. The above chart is the integrated ranking for Indian Health care sector. Cadila, Dr Redy’s and Sun are the top rankers. While Divi’s, Piramal and Cipla are the worst rankers. Orpheus performance cycles invest in the worst and sell the best. This is why the top short opportunities for Indian Health Care are respective top rankers and vice versa. To understand the strategy working try out the Alpha India.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Stop loss and exits are activated at 4%

Coverage India: BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.


Romanian Energy and Utilities set to underperform?

Indices are averages constructed from stock components. This is why they are less volatile and also don’t generally reach the best or worst performance rankings. For example BETXT and BETNG, the Romanian Indices have a lower chance of reaching above 50 (the worst performers) or near 1 (the best performer). This is why the Rieki pair cycle of BETXT vs. BETNG becomes interesting. The pair cycle has reached near a bottom and suggests that after underperforming BETNG for almost a year, it is time for BETXT to outperform BETNG.

During the period Jan 2010 till date, BETNG outperformed BETXT by 24%. This is serious alpha specially if we consider these returns are generated between Indices. We have illustrated the relative performance below between BETXT and BETNG. The ratio line is near Mar 2009 lows and indicates that Rieki pair perspective might be correct in indicating an outperformance of BETXT components compared to BETNG components. This also reinforces the idea of TGN underperformance.

Rieki is still negative for other top indices. We continue to look lower as the year comes to a close. Enjoy the latest Alpha Indices.

Enjoy the latest Alpha Romania Indices. Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.


Gold Silver Index Rieki ready to reverse?

Alpha Romania. Mid Economic: As anticipated VESY delivered positive returns moving up by 13%. The RIEKI and LOSO (trending system) remain positive. The mid economic sector consists industrial majors. Alpha also delivered in case of short Armatura, which dropped 15%. Condmag remains a bottoming stock ready for accumulation. And Electroaparataj and Electro Arges remain overstretched and potential underperformers.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.
Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.