Posts tagged ‘ROM’

THE ROMANIA FIVE

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Enjoy the latest ALPHA.ROM

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

ALPHA is a pair trading strategy product based on TIME ARBITRAGE, a term coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and binary charts. The product carries running performance portfolio tracker and give clear entry and exit signals. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

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ALPHA.ROM - THE ROMANIA FIVE

The Romanian TIME ARBITRAGE portfolio has five pairs now viz. BRD-BET, BETXT-SNP, SIF2-SIF5, BRD-BETXT, BET-SNP. The above tracker will be updated on a daily basis. The freshly opened trades will have the shortest holding periods. The type of trade will be depicted in the degree i.e. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). The legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. We are assuming a running stop loss of 4% per traded pair. BRD/BET means LONG BRD, SHORT BET. This also means +A-B. When the pair inverts to BET/BRD, it would mean SHORT BRD, LONG BET meaning -A+B.

Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications.

Enjoy the latest ALPHA.ROM.040809

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

DOWNLOAD THE REPORT ALPHA.ROM.040809

ALPHA is a pair trading strategy product based on TIME ARBITRAGE, a term coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and binary charts. The product carries running performance portfolio tracker and give clear entry and exit signals. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

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ALPHA.ROMANIA - LONG AND SHORT OF SIFS

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Please feel free to mail us for any clarifications.

Enjoy the latest ALPHA.ROM

*This is a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the ORPHEUS TIME ANALYTICS research products.

ALPHA is a pair trading strategy product based on TIME ARBITRAGE, a term coined by Orpheus Research. The signals are carried over three different time frames viz. sub minor (2-3 days), minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days). This is a daily signal product. The signals will be illustrated through tracker and binary charts. The product carries running performance portfolio tracker and give clear entry and exit signals. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


TEL, TGN n the positive utility factor

Before we come to the two utility majors let’s look at the Romanian markets. One of the lowest valuation globally; PEs of less then 7 looking forward; Strong fundamentals; Large global M&A deals; Low debt to capita ratios; Relative growth perspective of 4-5% for the next 2 years; Relative stable currency; Low budget deficit of less than 3%; Low Inflation; Falling lending rates

We continue to look at the large cap outperformance over small caps and value over growth. If we connect the large cap hypothesis with the late economic sector, utility sector along with staples are going to benefit the most from the above mentioned aspects. Above that we have a consolidation in the global utility sector too.

We see Transelectrica at a potential 25 RON in the next 6-12 months and TRANSGAZ at 220 during the same period.

Both Transelectrica and Transgaz are currently valued at a PE of 6 and have a BV of 0.4 and 1 respectively. While the prospects of growth are great, over 10% for the next 3-5 years, the Debt to Equity is less than 20%. The companies also generate free cash and a dividend yield of 7-8%, which is considerably less than the Bonds. However, the underlying risk for both companies is low. There are no alternatives for power transmission and gas transportation and their grids are improving. They are also investing hundreds of millions of Euros in infrastructure.

On top of this the annual growth of 7-8% and many international projects, will continue to add to Transelectrica’s bottom line. The company is also financing an under sear cable in the Black Sea with Turkey and building a grid with Serbia. The two new Nuclear Power reactors to be completed by 2012-2015 will increase overall grid capacity by 20-30%. The current credit crisis might slowdown some of the pace, but the projects will eventually go through within a couple of years.

Transgaz is involved in a major project that will cross Romania from Nabbucco, to North and South stream projects. Either one of them will increase the earnings by 20-30% annually. Alternatively Transgaz is working with Hungary and Serbia for additional projects. This will add another 5% annual growth to the existing stable earnings.

All this looks more attractive in context of M&A deals. Only a couple of weeks ago Electricite De France had purchased British Energy for a whooping 22 Bil USD. Exelon Corp. The biggest U.S. utility company by market value offered this week to buy NRG for $6.2 billion in stock in a bet that its superior creditworthiness will allow for refinancing of NRG’s $8 billion in debt at lower costs. Even Warren Buffett’s MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. $4.7 billion bid for Constellation, was accepted last month.

So while sentiment might look extreme as if there is no pause too all this price drops, the utility majors are actively energizing their businesses. And what timing to look at value when the majority does not see it.

Enjoy the latest XTR INDICES.201008

ORPHEUS ROMANIA RESEARCH

XTR.INDICES is our analytics product, which creates and manages Romanian market indices like XTR 21, XTR 100 and XTR 30 (Free Float). We also run models based on breadth indicators (Advance Decline ratio) and statistical parameters (correlations, betas, volatilities, top price changes, 200 day moving average etc.) XTR 21 - THE BLUE CHIP INDEX. REUTERS RICS COVERED.TRPS.BX, VNCA.BX, AMSL.BX, PEXI.BX, BATR.BX, ARTM.BX, COMI.BX, PTRI.BX, BRDX.BX, BRKU.BX, ARTM.BX, SNOS.BX, ARSB.BX, ALRO.BX, AZOM.BX, OTSP.BX, ALUM.BX, MOPN.BX, TSEL.BX, TGNM.BX XTR 100 - BROAD MARKET INDEX. XTR 30 - FREE FLOAT INDEX. XTR – EE (XTR EARLY ECONOMIC INDEX), XTR – ME (MID ECONOMIC SECTOR), XTR – LE (LATE ECONOMIC SECTOR)

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CYCLE II lows n the end of the world

I am visiting India and am writing from the Orpheus New Delhi desk. Markets have been making lower lows here too. And fortunately or unfortunately, the famous day of 28 Oct (1929, Black Monday) is a national holiday here. Not because India is celebrating the old crash, but it’s a start of an important day in the Old Hindu calendar also celebrated as the festival of lights, Diwali, symbolizing the victory of good over evil. The cyclicality of market crashes juxtaposed along with a day of a new beginning over an end, might seem odd. But this is the way market cycles work, an end is always a beginning.

A few of us from Romania or other emerging and developed parts of the world would wish a holiday too. But that’s the way we think, about pauses in tough times. But markets would not stop falling if you close them down (like we saw in Romania). And markets won’t keep falling just because everybody is selling and we start thinking this to be the end of the world. The stock market never has a “Depression” , it only corrects a previous advance. A cycle is action and reaction. And if you really think a 90% collapse is exceptional, think again, CYCLE II waves are known for their 90% collapses. In other words markets retrace most of the gains of the previous CYCLE I. After which the CYCLE III starts. (RIGHT)

How else do you think, performers will be polarized from underperformers. It’s the survival of the fittest. And what better way to test character, strength and skill than a real structural collapse, where market players are left to think ingeniously and differently. The players who survive today will the market leaders of tomorrow, as the CYCLE, once again will turn.

We continue to look at OCT lows making multiple month entry points, with possible bounce backs, 100% and more from where the feeling of the “End of the world” is the greatest. Don’t get fooled, the world is not ending, and neither is the BVB closing down. Have courage to accumulate the value stories here. We still believe in BRD, TEL, TGN, SNP and will be coming out with the top ten Orpheus stock picks in our latest XTR issue.

Meanwhile, look for new beginnings and not endings, now if you understand that they are the same.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.ROM

WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX,.BETFI)

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