Posts tagged ‘RON’

WAVES.FOREX - JAPANESE YEN POINTS HIGHER

WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published TUE and THU. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (e.g. Euro, Dollar, Yen, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc and Dollar Index) The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=

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WAVES.FOREX - EURHUF - HUNGARIAN FORINT READY TO REVERSE

WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published TUE and THU. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (e.g. Euro, Dollar, Yen, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc and Dollar Index) The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=

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EURUSD. The large primary degree B wave continues to unfold

Enjoy the latest WAVES.FOREX.

WAVES.FOREX - WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published TUE and THU. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (e.g. Euro, Dollar, Yen, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc and Dollar Index) The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=

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EURUSD. NINE LEGS UP SUGGESTS A COMPLETE C/3 UP.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.FOREX.

WAVES.FOREX - WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published TUE and THU. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (e.g. Euro, Dollar, Yen, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc and Dollar Index) The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=

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THE DOLLAR CYCLES

During a telecon, a senior MTA member and my mentor Rona Schehrer from Zurich remarked that markets move around a few key assets. And inability to miss out on one can imbalance any sound portfolio. What Rona was mentioning was that even she could generate real alpha, she still had to understand Forex risk. The wild movements in dollar made a fund managers already tricky task trickier.

I promised her to have a detailed look at Dollar Index, so here goes. We have studied the inverted dollar index in this report. Inverted dollar index (=USD) is similar to the Euro Dollar (EUR=). Despite a comprehensive attempt to study Dollar cycles, we could not make an immediate secular case of weakness on Dollar. What we could see was a broad stagnation on dollar for 12-15 months, followed by further strength at least till late 2010. Only after which the next round of secular dollar weakness should begin.

We could be interpreting the cycles incorrectly, but if what we see is correct, then it’s not over for the paper assets. DOW and Global equity has a large bout of strength left. This should be good news for battered equity bulls and bad news for the crisis believers (majority now). This
also means that Gold collapse is more real than what seems. The fool’s gold is trapping as many bulls as it can.

On the minor and intermediate terms, dollar index could push up till 92 (previous 4 levels). After which the large multi month stagnation should unfold. The latest WAVES.FOREX carries other Anticipated and Happened cases on INR and RON Dollar. Euro Ron triangle is fizzling out. We are still expecting a leg up on Euro Ron before the multi month strengthening starts on Lei. If majority of world assets are against dollar and markets core competence is to confuse and surprise, the large multi month dollar stagnation we are talking about is at the right time.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.FOREX

WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published five days a week. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (eg. EURO USD, DOLLAR INDEX, YEN USD, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc, Hungarian Forint, Croatian Kuna, Canadian Dollar). The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH

WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published twice a week. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (eg. EURO USD, DOLLAR INDEX, YEN USD, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc, Hungarian Forint, Croatian Kuna, Canadian Dollar). The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=

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THE LEI NON CONFIRMATION

Unlike EUR RON which has pushed above 2004 high, RON DOLLAR is still below respective time levels. What does this mean? This means that RON has not weakened as much against DOLLAR as it has weakened against EURO. One can make another observation here. Not making a new high against one currency and making a new high against the other is a non confirmation.

Just like prices need volume to suggest a real turn around, a continued weakness on LEI can only happen if RON DOLLAR also breaks above 2004. A failure to do this would suggest that LEI has something else in mind compared to what the market thinks regarding the direction the local currency should take for 2009.

Non confirmation at a four year key level is no joke and suggest that prices could indeed be at a reversal level here. Either RON DOLLAR should break above 2004 levels, or we can expect that the anticipated final exhaustion we are expecting on LEI should be nearer than farther.

The classic ending diagonal formation (illustration) on RON DOLLAR compared to CONTRACTING TRIANGLE we illustrated last time (trading an extension) also brings out this difference clearly. Ending Diagonal is a terminating five legged pattern (a-b-c-d-e) while Contracting Triangle is a continuation formation. Anticipated strength on LEI also validates our MAR reversal case on equities. Though we are looking at JUN for a 13-15 month turn around on Global equity including Romania, the inter asset (currency, equity, energy, metals) bottoms may illustrate some leadership i.e. earlier tops and earlier bottoms compared to its other asset peers.

The latest WAVES.FOREX report carries CYCLES on RON DOLLAR and EUR DOLLAR. RON DOLLAR CYCLES suggest that prices don’t have much further up to go. This seems in sync with the EUR DOLLAR, which could see some minor weakness ahead. We have carried ANTICIPATED and HAPPENED cases on Indian Rupee and Yen. The FOREX market seems to be heading towards an intermediate reversal time window (MAR). We will keep you posted.


Who will kill the Pope in Istanbul?

This was a recent Turkish thriller, which sold as many as 20,000 copies before the Pope arrived in Turkey. Sensationalism is at the heart of many industries. The news industry thrives on it. The television or the print. This sensationalism gives people what they want. If you give people something that they don’t want or something that they don’t want to listen or hear, you are doing something non sensational. We come in the latter category.

And like many of other forecasts, that we made on OIL, to sell at $ 78 and buy at $ 55 (WAVES.ENERGY), or for RON-EURO, where we are the lone voice saying the currency is headed to 3.2 in 2007 and maybe lower, or for COFFEE and SUGAR, which we say will not only outperform a host of assets but COFFEE also has a potential to double from current prices in a multi month time frames, we also say that TLV, the top blue chip of the ROMANIAN economy will fall from current levels to 0.85 and then 0.6. Unfortunately or fortunately that is how we see the perspective. Now we can give a host of fundamental reasons, which involve the size of the company, ability to sustain that growth, the bank’s cash needs, homogeneity of the loan portfolio, overall credit expansion in the emerging markets, sensitivity of the financial sector to the broad market, leading nature of the sector, sector PE multiple and a host of other reasons. And putting it all simply, we can say that the 6 year log channel stands broken for the stock and a normal Fibonacci retracement identifies 0.85 and 0.6 as the minimum retracement levels. We hope we are wrong, just like the author who speculated on the Pope’s murder.


The Lone Voice

Not very many pepole care about Siberia. I remember my father told me to take off the poster describing women as they age. The poster, I remember said that when a woman is old she is like Siberia and no one wants to go there. At that time I really did not understand why my father could not let me have some hot poster comparing woman sexuality to Persia and Siberia.

15 years have passed since then and now I know people who worked in Siberia. Actually, I just met one last evening. His lone voice guided him to take the call. My father’s lesson felt rash that time, but now I think I have come a full circle. I heard my lone voice too. Just like Serbia, they had not even heard of Romania, when I came here. Will you believe it, some friends back home looked down on what they thought was a non - descript Eastern European mafia nation. Many disuaded me from taking the step.

Well! I am happy I took it. Today, the lone voice which guided me then keeps me ahead of times. The same lone voice could help me see exciting things about the nation, like the football team, great culture, english speaking young population, a bigger consumption market than Hungary and Czech put together, warm people and above all a currency called RON.

It was this RON that we studied in NOV 05 and said this in our report - Despite central bank interferences, we expect RON to test 3.0 levels before any pullbacks. This is a strengthening of about 14% from current levels. This is about 10% more than expected Dollar strengthening against Euro. This positivity will rub on the local stock markets, as it remains attractive viz a viz its western counterparts. As we mentioned prior, all this turns out to be a benefit for consumers who borrow in Euro and save in RON.

The lone voice did it again. After 13 months Bloomberg came with this news on Dec 11. 2006 - Romania’s leu surpassed all European currencies to become the world’s best performer this year and is poised for more gains because foreign investment may double as the former communist dictatorship enters the European Union.

The lone voice always helps. It helps us understand stories before anybody does.