Posts tagged ‘sensex’

Alpha Global Indices - Sensex. Worst case scenario

While over the short-term SENSEX should see a minor bounce from around 17,300 levels, the overall picture looks grim. We have initially stated that the current decline is a primary degree zigzag that could retest 16,000. Well, checking the charts since 1993 would bring additional information: the whole 17 years price action seems to be a whole cycle degree impulse (with a truncation on its circle 5 subdivision). This means that we could be in a much larger corrective pattern than initially assumed. And this would be a cycle degree zigzag to 9,300 or even 9,100. Keep in mind though, that this is just a worst case scenario, we are not necessarily counting on that, at least not yet.

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage Global: Dow 30 components, Global Indices, ETF SPDRS, Commodities

Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and a speaker with Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate and cleared CMT level 1 exam. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the ALPHA GLOBAL INDICES.


Sensex vs. Dow

Emerging equity is an active asset class. Money flows in and out of them actively. No wonder intermarket analysis between Sensex and Dow assumes an important role.

This week we are looking at Sensex, Dow and their intermarket relationship. Sensex is testing its previous low. The more prices test their previous supports successively, the more likely to break. Even if look at the current formation as an Elliott C wave and not a 3 wave down (Fig. 3), next immediate supports lie at 18,000. Weekly momentum and negative Rieki performance cycle (Fig. 1) confirm our negative case.

What happens from Sensex 18,000 is the tricky part. Whether that’s all the correction we will have on India? Or is there more to come? …

This article is written for ATMA

Time Triads, Time Fractals, Time Arbitrage, Performance Cycles are terms coined by Orpheus Research. Time Triads is our weekly market letter. The report covers various aspects on TIME patterns, TIME forecast, alternative research, emerging markets, behavioral finance, market fractals, econohistory, econostatistics, time cyclicality, investment psychology, socioeconomics, pop cultural trends, macro economics, interest rates, derivatives, money management, Intermarket trends etc.

Alpha India ME - Sensex 30 rankings

Alpha is a daily strategy signal product that gives long only, short only, pair trading signals. Alpha is a numeric Ranking product based on TIME fractals. The signals are carried over minor (10-30 days) and intermediate (above 30 days) time frame. The signals are illustrated through tracker and running portfolios. Alpha can be used by fund managers for relative allocations, traders for leverage bets and high net worth clients for selective trades. This is a part of the time triads analytics developed by Orpheus Research.

Naked and/or pair strategies are not riskless strategies. Time arbitrage portfolio legs should be risk weighted before any implementation. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager to execute these pairs. For more details please subscribe to the Orpheus Research products.

Coverage India: BSE500 traded stocks and Indian Indices.

Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.


SENSEX. ENDING DIAGONAL

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ORPHEUS INDIA RESEARCH

WAVES.IND is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK

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WAVES.GLOBAL - TURN DOWN IS HERE

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ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH

WAVES.GLOBAL is a perspective product published on Monday. The report highlights top GLOBAL indices and emerging market indices viz. Dow Jones Industrial (.DJI), S&P 500 (.GSPC), German DAX (.GDAXI), Russian IRTS (.IRTS), Shanghai Composite (.SSEC), Nikkei 225 (.N225), Brazil BOVESPA (.BVSP), Indian Sensex (.BSESN). The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers and market trends.

REUTERS RICS: .BVSP, .IRTS, .FCHI, .GDAXI, .GSPC, .DJI, .N225, .SSEC, .BSESN

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SENSEX. Anticipated and Happened

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This is a perspective product which helps making and implementing a strategy better. TICKS.INDIA covers NIFTY, NIFTY BANK, CNXIT and their futures on an Intra day basis. The report also covers Sensex. The reports are published through a self refreshing webpage. The service starts at 09:30 HRS (IST). The service can be accessed from the Orpheus Site.

TICKS.INDIA identifies the MINOR (less than 3 weeks), SUB MINOR (few days), and INTERMEDIATE (more than 6 weeks) trend and highlight respective KEY LEVELS for ENTRY and EXIT (The only two things needed for a strategy).

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SENSEX 4 WAVE OVER OR IS THERE STILL MORE TO COME


MEMBER'S VIEW OF SENSEX


The TIME Index

Can we trade time as an asset class?

On one side we have comments like will the equilateral triangle lose symmetry as time triads move and on the other side is a clear idea of time triads being an empty philosophy. A controversy is a start, at least there is a debate, a thought. Volatility has been around since markets started trading, but it was not until 1993 that the idea started trading as a VIX index. Now we have hedge funds trading volatility, as an asset class. Will the market evolve to trade new asset classes? Can the market trade time as an asset class? Can we have something called time indexing?

As a start it looks counterintuitive. We are already trading time indirectly, but how can you trade time directly? And even if you could, how will you commoditize time as an asset class? Before we understand how time triads can itself become an asset class, one should realize that indexing techniques over the last centuries have moved from price weighting to free float to fundamental indexing. The idea of a benchmark is simple and investible.

So what’s time indexing? The time index tracks the performance of a pair of assets, a quantifiable study of pair performance. Pairs can be between Nikkei- Bovespa, Dow Industrials - Dow Transports, Gold - Oil, Sensex - Dow, Sensex - Gold or between any two economic time series. Pairs can tell us a lot about markets and where we are headed tomorrow. But what do pairs have to do with time? When you are long on an asset class and short on the other, you are taking out the price and just trading on time. This is why long Dow Industrials and short Dow Transports (or vice versa) is a pair idea, which lets us trade time as an asset class. Now conventionalists may argue, what fun is it to trade two indices, which move up and down together?

This is where we come in. Performance cyclicality was highlighted first time in the Kyoto University journal, Nistor, Pal. The paper illustrated performance cycles between Nikkei and the other BRIC countries. The research proved that performance between two economic zones illustrated through the countries composite equity index was not just cyclical, but even quantifiable. One of the conclusions of the paper was demonstrated through our feature here ‘Long India - Short China’. The pair delivered 50% over a quarter. Markets are quantifiable and they allow even regional indices to be pegged against each other profitably. What the paper demonstrated was that irrespective of the tight or lose correlation of an asset, performance cyclicality can be demonstrated at all time frames. The paper was indirectly demonstrating time fractals, triads.

There are some clear advantages of trading on time triads, time indexing, or say performance as an asset class. Being long and short two high correlated assets can reduce market risk i.e. offer market neutrality. This makes the strategy attractive. What is the investment world looking for? The first and foremost is a reduction in risk. For example shorting Nsebank and going long on Nifty reduces portfolio volatility and captures performance between the two sector indices creating relative alpha. Now this strategy may not perform better in a trended market, but it will surely outperform stagnation or declining market. The pace of wealth destruction and changing risk appetites also makes time indexing a viable option.

So what’s at the soul of the investment strategy? It is the ability to isolate the performance cycle. How do you do it? First, you accept that cyclicality of time exists and Kitchin, Juglar, Berry and Strauss were thinkers and not just illusionary pattern watchers. Second, one should understand that cycle regularity is not just about equality but power law proportionality. Third, one should start connecting or overlaying larger time fractals with smaller fractals. This again brings us to time triads, triangle in a triangle essence.

What kind of pairs? Large capitalization against Small capitalization indices, value vs. growth indices, mid economic vs. late economic etc. what if we go wrong? Well! If you can invest in a naked asset with a risk return history, you can invest in a market neutralizing, capital conserving simulated spot time index too. Above all if speculative volume can trade anything that moves, this is still an open source model. What about risk management? A diversified time index with many components could take care of emerging risk from the strategy.

We have been carrying pairs in this feature starting 2004. Frankly speaking it took us a lot of time to comprehend that what we were really trading, pairs or time. It took us more time to understand the fractal aspect in the subject. Long India, short China was one such pair we featured profitably. We have illustrated Oil - Sensex, CNXIT - Sensex, BSE500 -Sensex and many such pairs to highlight not only performance cyclicality but also market, economic perspectives and direction. We are not very far from the first Indian TIME index.

Another example of performance cyclicality can be built around the three pillars of global economy, Gold, Dow and Oil. So what does the Gold - Dow pair (ratio line) tell us? It says that Gold has hit an intermediate underperformance low against not only Dow, but also Sensex. This means that long Gold, Short Dow (Sensex) should be profitable pair for more than a few weeks. Even the larger primary performance cycle is also up in favor of Gold and against Dow. The respective performance cycle has been working from 1976 with an average 5 year cyclicality. The last cycle turned up in 2008 and should complete sometime in 2012. This means there is more for Gold ahead against American equity. This could mean that Dow should underperform and fall against Gold, Gold should rise or outperform Dow or Gold should fall but less compared to Dow. The very fact that Gold did not collapse against anything also suggests that the underlying larger cycle of Gold (2008-2012) outperformance against Dow continued to work.

If we need more confirming evidence we can look at Dow - Oil pair (ratio line). It might seem like a counterintuitive pair, but though Gold and Oil belong to the same commodity class, they can behave differently. Unlike Gold, Oil has pushed up to cycle highs against Dow. This could be owing to extreme oversold levels, reprieve in recession worries, or simply putting volatility cycles ruling OIL. There could be a thousand more reasons to explain why Oil shot up against both Gold and Dow. What really matters is where is the performance cycle (time oscillators) between Oil and Dow headed now? The respective pair has reached an extreme against Oil and is non confirming suggesting topping Oil performance against Dow. This means that the OIL intermediate topping could be near. Even if Dow pushes up above 8,800-9,000 levels in the ongoing leg, Oil needs magic to sustain and push to further highs against Dow. So if Oil is turning down against Dow, and Gold is turning up against Dow, what equity strength are we speaking about for the next few weeks? We have a history of contrarian calls from Oil at 100, when we said the oil rocket was not sustainable. The MAR low call on markets and Bsemetals compelling valuations where made at a time when $5 was thrown as another achievable figure for Oil. We are at $70 now.

Performance cycles (time oscillators) are easy to understand, but they become tougher to grasp when you start to explain them fundamentally. The real counterintuitive thinking is not how we can have long Dow and Short Oil and still call Gold as a performer, but how time indexing can revolutionize how we understand and trade time as an asset class.

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