Posts tagged ‘WTM-’

OIL. WTM. ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED

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ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH

WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM-, .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N, IPNG, NG-P-CAL

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

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DOLLAR VS OIL VS NATGAS

A trend has five legs. This impulse gives direction to the asset. Five leg also completes trends. How do we know which five legs are completing a trend and which impulses are ending trend. Now Elliotticians might have answers to these questions, but using performance cycles not only trends and counter trends can become more clear, but we can see the larger unequivocal intermarket picture.

Now Dollar Index, Brent and Natural Gas seem to be trending in five wave structures. Markets tend to surprise, after the 4 wave sideways market action, when traders and investors are stuck in sideways action and patience testing times, the fifth leg surprises. Brent is also near its 200 Day moving average, the very reason a surprise push up can not be ruled out. However, the overall structure remains topping and gapping (SLIDE3). Unlike the minor view, the larger primary cycles suggest that the trend for OIL has turned up for a few years. Any dip down now from an intermediate top should be a three legged structure, which should not head down to new lows on Oil. XLE has a similar impulse up like Brent.

On the Oil equity side we see further upside. All of CVX, XOM, VERBUND suggest higher prices. This could be owing to the performance cycle between Oil and Oil based equity. How do performance cycles work? There are only three ways that performance cycles can work. Outperformer rises while underperformer falls, outperformer stops falling while underperformer falls more, outperformer falls while underperformer crashes. The performance cycles between Dollar Index and Brent suggest that there is further upside on Brent left after which the cycle should reverse leading to a possible fall on Brent and rise on dollar index.

The market might be surprised with Reliance results, but performance cycles were already negative on Reliance against ONGC for more than a few weeks already. The Natural Gas performance cycle is also bottoming on an intermediate basis. We have carried the performance tracker update above. On a minor basis the spot Nat gas continues to outperform Brent. We have also enclosed a few other pairs from their recent turn levels. Did you ever think Reliance – ONGC pair could deliver 10% return? Well this is a surprise worth understanding.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.OIL

* This is a perspective product and not a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager.

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ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH

WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM-, .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N, IPNG, NG-P-CAL
ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM
ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


WAVES.OIL - UP BUT TOPPING OIL CONTINUES

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ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH

WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM-, .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N, IPNG, NG-P-CAL
ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM
ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


WAVES.OIL - LONG NAT GAS, SHORT BRENT

Contrarianism works because it is the closest to TIME. Now that NATGAS outlook is at an extreme, the LONG NATGAS – SHORT BRENT strategy is worth it’s weight in GOLD. The intermediate cycles have already turned up and we should have some confirmation on primary (multi month) performance cycles soon.

Moreover the way Fundamentalists are being quoted in New York Times, their sentiment is at an extreme against NATGAS.

“Natural Gas, Suddenly abundant, is cheaper”, “ This is a drastic collapse”, “There is a world bubble, a production glut”, “ Nat Gas is loosely connected to world oil benchmark ”

We also have news how Putin’s arm twisting and energy politics backfired now that Gazprom is witnessing declining fortunes. The fall in prices has devastated the company’s business model forcing it to close down own oil wells in Russia. Conclusions are all over the place. “Either the oil prices are going to surge or its not going to happen”. GAZPROM maybe in for some multi week dip, but any dip now on the stock should be the last bout of weakness before the multi year resurgence starts.

We at Orpheus are alone illustrating the performance cycle between NAT GAS and BRENT. The sentiment extreme seems to validate our pair and naked asset view that NATGAS is ready to outperform.

The latest update on OIL carries the UP BUT TOPPING view on OIL. We have conspicuous momentum non confirmations and conventional resistances right ahead. An alternate view suggests that OIL could push up marginally higher till 80. Overall view remains ready to reverse.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.OIL

* This is a perspective product and not a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager.

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ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH

WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM-, .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N, IPNG, NG-P-CAL
ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM
ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


LONG DOW, SHORT OIL

Long DOW, Short OIL might seem like a counterintuitive pair after we have already recommended LONG Gold, Short DOW, but the reality is different. Gold and OIL though belong to the same commodity asset class can behave differently. Gold is a crisis commodity and the weekly cycle lows against DOW (SLIDE 1) suggest that even if there is a primary bull reprieve coming on DOW, GOLD may not underperform DOW. 

Unlike Gold, OIL has pushed up very fast against DOW. This could be owing to oversold levels, reprieve in recession worries, or simply putting volatility cycles currently ruling OIL. There could be a thousand more reasons to explain why OIL shot up against both Gold and DOW. What really matters is where is the performance cycle between OIL and DOW headed now. We have been in a non accepting mode on OIL since 13 APR, calling the current rally as an UP BUT TOPPING corrective mode. We did not see prices moving above 55, but then market surprised and has moved above to 70. This could be a C/3 leg up, any further move up from here dashes all our exhaustion expectations. However, OIL vs. DOW performance cycle has non confirmed and is suggesting a weakness on OIL compared to DOW. This means that the OIL intermediate topping could be near, as we are not expecting DOW to push up above 8,800-9,000 levels in this leg. If this was not enough, OIL is also topping against Gold. OIL needs magic to sustain and push to further highs now that performance cycles have turned against it and in favor of GOLD and DOW.

Performance cycles are easy to understand, but they become tougher to grasp when you start to explain them fundamentally. The real counterintuitive thinking was not how we can have Long Gold and Short Oil or Long DOW and Short OIL at the same time, but how can we expect a multi month correction on Gold (The Gold collapse) and still expect Gold to outperform DOW.  The current report carries updates on CVX,XOM, NATGAS, MCX ENERGY Index, BRT and WTM.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.OIL 

ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH

WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM-, .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N, IPNG, NG-P-CAL

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


LONG DOW, SHORT OIL

Long DOW, Short OIL might seem like a counterintuitive pair after we have already recommended LONG Gold, Short DOW, but the reality is different. Gold and OIL though belong to the same commodity asset class can behave differently. Gold is a crisis commodity and the weekly cycle lows against DOW (SLIDE 1) suggest that even if there is a primary bull reprieve coming on DOW, GOLD may not underperform DOW.

Unlike Gold, OIL has pushed up very fast against DOW. This could be owing to oversold levels, reprieve in recession worries, or simply putting volatility cycles currently ruling OIL. There could be a thousand more reasons to explain why OIL shot up against both Gold and DOW. What really matters is where is the performance cycle between OIL and DOW headed now. We have been in a non accepting mode on OIL since 13 APR, calling the current rally as an UP BUT TOPPING corrective mode. We did not see prices moving above 55, but then market surprised and has moved above to 70. This could be a C/3 leg up, any further move up from here dashes all our exhaustion expectations. However, OIL vs. DOW performance cycle has non confirmed and is suggesting a weakness on OIL compared to DOW. This means that the OIL intermediate topping could be near, as we are not expecting DOW to push up above 8,800-9,000 levels in this leg. If this was not enough, OIL is also topping against Gold. OIL needs magic to sustain and push to further highs now that performance cycles have turned against it and in favor of GOLD and DOW.

Performance cycles are easy to understand, but they become tougher to grasp when you start to explain them fundamentally. The real counterintuitive thinking was not how we can have Long Gold and Short Oil or Long DOW and Short OIL at the same time, but how can we expect a multi month correction on Gold (The Gold collapse) and still expect Gold to outperform DOW. The current report carries updates on CVX,XOM, NATGAS, MCX ENERGY Index, BRT and WTM.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.OIL

ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH

WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM-, .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N, IPNG, NG-P-CAL

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA


OIL'S 200 period retest


It is not strange that just like equity 200 period moving average OIL is also testing the same average. Though intermarket relationship suggests negative correlations between equity and commodities, both asset classes can fall together on intermediate time frames. It’s only on larger primary time frames (more than 9 months) that we can see sustained negative correlations.

After we pulled the plug on our OIL TRIANGLE (10 MAR). We moved to a FLAT interpretation, still looking at a final corrective C up. This is what we said in our last update on 13 Apr 2009.

‘Time oscillators suggest that the best of OIL for Q2 is over. Any leg up till 55 should be final before the turn down. We remain unconvinced of a secular up trend on OIL now’

OIL pushed up to 60 dollars and is now retesting 200 period average on both BRT and WTM. Momentum non confirmations are conspicuous and prices have reached previous conventional resistances. In continuation of our report on Intermarket CYCLES, the current OIL report suggests impending weakness on OIL and that the move up on OIL still is a completing (c) rather than a (3) wave up. We have carried gapping prices on Reliance, ONGC and MCX ENERGY (INDIA) and OMV.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.OIL

ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH

WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM-, .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N, IPNG, NG-P-CAL

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ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

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