Posts tagged ‘XAU=’

THE GOLD FLAT

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WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

REUTERS RICS: XAU=, XAG=, XPT=, CU-NYC, .SPGSIZ, SPGSIA,.NSTL


WAVES.GOLD - THE GOLDEN OUTPERFORMANCE

First it was LONG GOLD-SHORT DOW (up 5%), followed by LONG GOLD- SHORT OIL ( up 8%), GOLD vs. Industrial metals (up 1%) and LONG GOLD - SHORT SILVER (up 5%). Either this is a string of coincidences or our performance cycles really work. Mind it these are just gold related pairs, we have already demonstrated performance cyclicality with other equity and cross asset pairs (econohistory.com). more…

* This is a perspective product and not a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager.

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ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA

WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

REUTERS RICS: XAU=, XAG=, XPT=, CU-NYC, .SPGSIZ, SPGSIA,.NSTL


THE GOLDEN OUTPERFORMANCE

First it was LONG GOLD-SHORT DOW (up 5%), followed by LONG GOLD- SHORT OIL ( up 8%), GOLD vs. Industrial metals (up 1%) and LONG GOLD - SHORT SILVER (up 5%). Either this is a string of coincidences or our performance cycles really work. Mind it these are just gold related pairs, we have already demonstrated performance cyclicality with other equity and cross asset pairs (econohistory.com).

The latest update on metals illustrate Gold vs. Platinum, Uranium, Copper, Steel, Aluminum and Zinc. These are the various industrial and strategic metals. Most of the performance cycles suggest that GOLD is in for a multi month outperformance. Is there something wrong with Gold? Why is it ready to outperform? What is it signaling?

One aspect which stands out unequivocally is that Gold leads the metals complex. The crisis commodity is ready to rise against most metals. This leadership against metals, equities and commodities like OIL also suggest that our underperformance case on equities and oil should continue.

Our preferred view on GOLD is up with prices still holding 920-925 levels. While rest of the metals continue to move lower. We have carried ANTICIPATED AND HAPPENED cases.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.GOLD

* This is a perspective product and not a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager.

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ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA

WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

REUTERS RICS: XAU=, XAG=, XPT=, CU-NYC, .SPGSIZ, SPGSIA,.NSTL


THE PROSPERITY INDEX H109

We have written about the GOLD-SILVER index aka the prosperity index many times. The first time we wrote about it was on 13 Nov 2006. This is what we said then.

“Did you know that the price relationship between Gold and Silver is not fixed? It varies substantially. And it has predictive value too. As in different market environments, the value of Gold is perceived differently than Silver. Gold is perceived as an important crisis commodity. As fear replaces confidence, Gold increases in value relative to Silver. For example risks of economic and political upheaval. When the market risks are low Silver is preferred over Gold, as the white metal has many industrial uses and the consumption of Silver grows in a rising economy. he last time the value for the ratio dipped below 1 was in 1997 and then the South East Asian crisis broke leading to a bounce back in ratio. And since 1984 the ratio has never been below parity. At this stage after 22 years the ratio is headed down below 1 again. Rather it is now ruling at sub 1 level. Now there are two ways to see it, one that we are in for more prosper times that we have not witnessed since 1984. If this is true Gold should continue to fall relatively to silver, or underperform silver. Second way to look at it is that we are once again sitting at the edge of a crisis, which might be just around the corner. At this stage, we have a falling five wave ratio line. This means that there is no fear in the market and hence this maybe not an opportune time to go long on the crisis commodity yet.”

This is what we said on 24 Jan 2007 regarding the sentiment index.

The prosperity index espouses the same principle of wrong choices at an extreme. We highlighted the prosperity index on 13 Nov 06 in our WAVES.METALS report. Also known as the Gold-Silver ratio, the ratio lows come near prosperity highs. As illustrated, we as a society are heading into the most prosper times of the last 25 years. And conventional wisdom and conventional research foresees prosperity as a straight line, which means the bounty and loot shoot continue. But unfortunately, life and everything in nature, like stock market is cyclical. After high prosperity it’s time for the swing to the other extreme. The ratio is near 1 and has always returned back from these levels for a quarter century.

Currently, the ratio line on the intermediate and primary time frames continue to point lower suggesting that the crisis is behind us (gold falling against silver is good times as crisis commodity is falling) and we are nearing a primary up leg up on equities. It is the minor degree or weekly ratio line that suggests further fine tuning. Unlike the monthly chart (top), the weekly ratio line (bottom) continues to suggest a multi week outperformance on gold compared to silver is pending before gold comes down explaining our primary view on gold (SLIDE 2).

Industrial metals like steel and copper have started to show cracking signs. This week we introduce palladium, which just like gold may have a final leg up this year. In conclusion the metals confusion, minor multi week up followed by a primary multi month leg down is what we are betting on. Key 925 we mentioned last time on gold held. We still expect respective levels to hold. We will review if 925 breaks. Meanwhile LONG GOLD-SHORT SILVER is a pair we are tracking. We have update the report with performance pair tracker.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.GOLD

* This is a perspective product and not a strategy product. Long Short strategies are not riskless strategies. Please mail us for a detailed working or consult a local financial risk manager.

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ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA

WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

REUTERS RICS: XAU=, XAG=, XPT=, CU-NYC, .SPGSIZ, SPGSIA,.NSTL


WAVES.GOLD - PRIMARY VIEW

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ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA

WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

REUTERS RICS: XAU=, XAG=, XPT=, CU-NYC, .SPGSIZ, SPGSIA,.NSTL


WAVES.GOLD - THE RISE N FALL OF INDUSTRIAL METALS

GOLD is back from 989 highs to recent 936 lows. We need more price confirmation to call the ongoing down leg on GOLD as the start of a larger intermediate leg down. At this stage the push down looks like a minor corrective that could push lower till 925. The challenge is whether it will break respective supports and head back to 900 or lower. The GOLD sustained high may not have really worked out for GOLD international prices, but they did work out on GOLD INDIA spot, which pushed to historical highs near INR 16,000.

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ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA

WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

REUTERS RICS: XAU=, XAG=, XPT=, CU-NYC, .SPGSIZ, SPGSIA,.NSTL


Platinum and Copper

We carried Platinum bottoming view starting Nov 2008 from near 800 levels. We expected prices to hold primary supports. Prices not only held respective levels, but also have pushed 37% higher from 2 Nov lows at 732. And if the momentum signals are to be interpreted correctly, prices could push higher till 1,100 before anything.

A similar MINOR and Intermediate positive scenario exists in Copper. We have RSI momentum over reactivity and overlapping price formations which validate our positive case.

About GOLD. Prices have moved back near psychological 900 levels. Though the form looks impulsive, a clear five up, we are not convinced of an intermediate reversal on GOLD yet. A best case above 900 suggests 940. But first we will wait for a clear break at 900. We will need more than the current ongoing price formation to start looking at the larger up move on Gold till 3000. Even the Gold Spot and Futures in India look topping despite reaching historical highs.

Silver continues to push up as anticipated. Above 11.10 we are looking at 12.57.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.GOLD

WAVES.GOLD is a perspective product published on Monday and Wednesday. The report highlights GOLD and other precious and base metals. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

REUTERS RICS: XAU=, XAG=, XPT=, CU-NYC, .SPGSIZ, SPGSIA, .NSTL

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