OIL’S 200 period retest


It is not strange that just like equity 200 period moving average OIL is also testing the same average. Though intermarket relationship suggests negative correlations between equity and commodities, both asset classes can fall together on intermediate time frames. It’s only on larger primary time frames (more than 9 months) that we can see sustained negative correlations.

After we pulled the plug on our OIL TRIANGLE (10 MAR). We moved to a FLAT interpretation, still looking at a final corrective C up. This is what we said in our last update on 13 Apr 2009.

‘Time oscillators suggest that the best of OIL for Q2 is over. Any leg up till 55 should be final before the turn down. We remain unconvinced of a secular up trend on OIL now’

OIL pushed up to 60 dollars and is now retesting 200 period average on both BRT and WTM. Momentum non confirmations are conspicuous and prices have reached previous conventional resistances. In continuation of our report on Intermarket CYCLES, the current OIL report suggests impending weakness on OIL and that the move up on OIL still is a completing (c) rather than a (3) wave up. We have carried gapping prices on Reliance, ONGC and MCX ENERGY (INDIA) and OMV.

Enjoy the latest WAVES.OIL

ORPHEUS GLOBAL RESEARCH

WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM-, .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N, IPNG, NG-P-CAL

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