The global sentiment

There is not many conventional ways to explain why a small eastern European Country sentiment can have a bearing on the global sentiment. It was the Romanian Sentiment Review with it’s valued survey respondents (we thank you again) that held the key to global sentiment.

This is what the survey readings mentioned on 13 April

“Now if we look at Romanian markets, its not just RSR readings but classic conventional momentum that suggest extremes. Internet bloggers have already started getting vocal proving how wrong the experts are. Volatility indicators that are traditionally known to gauge fear are at all time lows across global equity regions. This all proves that we are living the time of rational extremes. Mar 2009 and Oct 2008 when we mentioned about reversal and potential buying opportunities, the majority was rationalizing negativity. Now the market participants are rationalizing positivity.”

Markets in Romania retraced 60% of all the rise from March 2009. A month long negativity may not be enough for building back a positive case, but it is enough to take sentiment readings to the other extreme. Romanian sentiment review readings have dropped dramatically and the survey suggests we are heading towards extreme bearish sentiment. Now this is a monthly survey and hence it’s tough to pinpoint whether the bottom is end of Jun or early July. But what seems clear is that another 10-15% lower and it would be time to prove the bears wrong.

Coming back to how Romanian sentiment holds valid cues for the global sentiment, the answer is pretty simple. Sentiment, society and markets are held together by time. Global equities top and bottom together. It’s only between the top and bottom they exhibit divergent and relative performance. The end Jun, early July market bottom we are speaking about should be relevant for Global equities too. Let’s see.

Enjoy the latest Romanian Sentiment Review.

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A Sentiment Index reading can assist to measure these extremities in mood and potential market turns. Survey respondents will not only benefit from the interpretation and indicator readings but also will be invited for regular training seminars on sentiment indicators and provided relevant literature. Orpheus Capitals and Prognosis.ro are two independent research companies publishing the Romanian Sentiment Review. RSR is a sentiment index based on the survey of market players. The respondents are queried on a host of areas including time frame of expectations, bullish and bearish bias and sectoral preferences. The data is then analysed to create various sentiment indices. The readings of the various indices explains the market sentiment and market direction. We also furnish the sentiment data on a periodical basis to financial institutions, fund managers and brokers for further research and investment.

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2 Comments

  1. Bharat
    Posted 16 June, 2010 at 10:54 | Permalink

    Has nifty actually bottomed given the strong bounce (comeback) in prices combined volumes?

  2. Posted 17 June, 2010 at 09:02 | Permalink

    The overall structure is corrective, so a marginal (alternate view) high can not be ruled out.

    Orpheus Research

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