US 30 Year bonds top

According to relative numeric rankings,  US 30 YR bonds are the top ranked bonds and hence topping and ready to underperform. Elliott structure suggest that respective prices are completing a 2 primary top, that should be followed by a 3 wave, multi month down structure.

Falling 30 year bond prices are about rising 30 year long term interest. Rising 30 year interest rates may not have an immediate effect on the markets. But if this is a signal for shorter term interest rates to rise, we are looking at a large bond price reversal and a multi month shorting opportunity.

To be sure, we looked for more confirmation with US 2 YR, 10 YR, 5 YR and German bonds. The structure remains topping for majority of US bonds. Barring Australian Bonds, which are still positive, exhaustions mark the landscape. Even Indian and Chinese Bond Indices point lower.

Inverted yield curves when short term rates are higher than long term rates generally indicate a market top. This happened at the 2007 top. The yield curve remains normal as shorter term (1month, 3 months, 1 year) rates are still lower compared to 30 year bond rates.

Enjoy the latest Waves Bonds.


Orpheus Global Research

WAVES.BONDS is a perspective product published once a month. The report covers American, European and emerging market bond markets. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Reuters Coverage 2YT Note , 30Y T Bond, 10YTNote, Euro Schatz, Euro Bund, Euro Bobl

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - UNITED KINGDOM

ORPHEUS RESEARCH AT REUTERS - USA

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