Reconciling the Rieki

The more we try to integrate performance cycles (Rieki) with Forex, the more nuances we see. First about the changes we did in the Forex Rieki. We are now monitoring quarterly cycles and not minor (few trading days) cycle. This gives us a more intermediate perspective, which can reconcile the Elliott counts with performance on the pair. Second, everything is benchmarked against the dollar index. So, if the Rieki performance cycle is going up for a currency, the respective currency is strengthening and vice versa. Third, we added the Chinese Yuan (XEY) and Indian INR Index (XEN) indices.

The latest Waves Forex suggests that INR and YEN are indeed heading for a top. INR is leading compared to YEN, but both suggest weakness against dollar. This means despite all the struggle and corrective nature of the counts, INR should continue to push up against 47 heading higher. On the other side it may be too much to expect YEN to really push below 85 in this leg lower.

The European forex Rieki tells another tale. EURUSD, CHFUSD, GBPUSD still points higher suggesting further minor upside and weakness in dollar. We will carry mid week update in case of a change of view. But as of now,  the stress test does not seem to bother the Euro. Above 1.31 prices could push higher towards 1.33 -1.34. Since we have breached a conventional channel, measuring implications also confirm respective levels.

Technically the broadening formation on GBP USD suggests limited upside, but considering the sentiment against GBPUSD 1.7 forecast, we continue to look at some surprises. Above 1.56 it’s a one way road till 1.6. We expect the Canadian Dollar non confirmation to keep AUS USD topping, as both are commodity based currencies. The latest Waves. Forex also carries a back to back head and shoulder case on INR illustrating how the overused pattern is anywhere and everywhere.

Enjoy the latest Waves.Forex


Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Technical Analyst at Finquest Securities Pvt Ltd on the Institutional Desk. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti will be covering Forex in her weekly columns.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published TUE and THU. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (e.g. Euro, Dollar, Yen, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc and Dollar Index) The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=

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