Orpheus Newsletter (Time Triads) - 05 Sep 2010

The Information Pattern

Information like everything else in nature is mathematically patterned. Understanding the pattern can help us make much more sense of information.

Coming to look at it, we don’t trade or invest in assets but their intrinsic information. It is this information that gives them value. The relationship is considered linear between information and value, the higher the quality of the information, higher the perceived value in the assets and vice versa. For example, the value of Oil lies in the information code bits in it. Oil is going to get over, demand will overshoot supply, future is inflationary are some of the information bits that drive the price of Oil. A similar information code also works for Gold and other assets. It’s like DNA with a different code, but similar double helix structure.

However, that’s not how the society knows information. The masses know information as something that they read in the newspaper, something that they see on TV, or read on the web. It’s all about making sense of this clutter. The very fact that humans think there is a certain disorder in the information that they assume the confusion that comes with news. If the information works for us, great, If it does not we accept it. We have learned to have fewer expectations from information.

Read more…

TIME TRIADS Features

The Information Pattern

Common Sense Society

The Fat Tail

Time Fractals – SSRN top 10 (1997-2010)

Smith, Pareto and the divergence debate

Redefining Intermarket Analysis

Top underperformer Spain wins

How did the worst performer Spain reach so far?

Did behavioral finance get it wrong?

Ranking Social Mood

Long football, short baseball

The failed state

The excitement cycles

Cycles of Entrepreneurship

TIME FRACTALS is No 1. in the SSRN download list for 60 days

Revisiting Time Triads

Dow Time Oscillator (updated)

Market Quotes

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Channels.India - Reliance. Anticipated and happened

RELIANCE DAILY Anticipated and happened Prices bounce back from our anticipated supports at 920 levels. A clear break above minor trend channel resistances would confirm that the minor impulse down is complete.

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also.

CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS

REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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Waves.India - Broad market special

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Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009
Alpha India

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Orpheus India Research

WAVES.INDIA is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK

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Waves.Global - SETI. Primary degree impulse almost complete

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Orpheus Global Research

Contributing Columnist: Dan-Andrei Rusu graduated in 2005 the Faculty of Economics Cluj-Napoca, “Dimitrie Cantemir” University. In the same year he’s joined BT Securities as a financial analyst. In 2007 he was authorized as an investment consultant by the Romanian Brokers’ Association. He is currently the Head of Research at BT Securities and an MTA (Market Technicians Association, New York) affiliate. He is a contributing columnist for Orpheus Capitals for the WAVES.GLOBAL weekly.

WAVES.GLOBAL is a perspective product published on Wednesday. The report highlights top GLOBAL indices and emerging market indices viz. S&P500 (.SPX), German DAX (.GDAXI), STOXX Europe 600 (.STOXX), Russian IRTS (.IRTS), Nikkei 225 (.N225), Shanghai Composite (.SSEC), Indian Sensex (.BSESN), Thailand SET Index (.SETI), Brazil BOVESPA (.BVSP). The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers and market trends.

REUTERS RICS: .SPX, .GDAXI, .STOXX, .IRTS, .N225, .SSEC, .BSESN, .SETI, .BVSP

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The Yen Rieki

When around May 2010, JPY broke the true red trendline and challenged our preferred corrective expectation up till 100, we pulled the plug and talked about 85 and new lows. We are almost there. New lows might sound historical news and a feat which could not have been seen in time. But this is what we said on 17 Jan 2007 “Waking up to Gung-Ho: The USD/YEN ratio line broke the 22 year trend suggesting YEN is ready to move out of inaction and head to potentially below 80 (33% strengthening) for many years.”

This was a multi Anticipated and happened case proving long term predictability is also linked with market patterns. Now that that prices are near all time lows, it would be interesting to see how Intermediate period Rieki (performance cycles) reinforces or counters the current intermediate and minor trend. The performance cycle (illustration) pinpointed many strengthening and weakening trends on the currency.

JPY like other eight pairs we track on numeric ranking are suggesting a strengthening dollar position. This means that there is positive seasonality for dollar rather than for JPY. Now the more interesting question is whether the positive seasonality for dollar would come in before JPY breaks all time low or before that.

Dollar strengthening is set to continue. EUR and GBP found minor support as expected and saw a bounce. However the intermediate trend remains down. JPY preferred looks like an ending formation, but we won’t rule out a new all time low. With EUR, GBP and CHF about to enter wave 3 of 3/C the pairs could see a sharp fall this week. CAD also saw a sharp fall this week. A breach below the neckline could see the fall accelerate further.

Enjoy the latest Waves Forex.


Jyoti Nangrani, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from the Market Technicians Association. She has 5 years of experience in Technical Analysis covering Equity and Commodity markets. She holds a Masters diploma in E-Business and is currently pursuing the MS Finance from ICFAI, Hyderabad. She is a Technical Analyst at Finquest Securities Pvt Ltd on the Institutional Desk. She worked as a part of the core strategy team at Tower Capital devising CRM and MIS systems for Debt/Equity and Commodity divisions. She is passionate about Technical Analysis and considers it an extremely valuable skill in current times. Jyoti will be covering Forex in her weekly columns.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

WAVES.FOREX is a perspective product published TUE and THU. The report highlights the top traded FOREX PAIRS (e.g. Euro, Dollar, Yen, Indian Rupee, Romanian Lei, Swiss Franc and Dollar Index) The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. REUTER RICS: EURRON=, RON=, JPY=, INR=, HUF=, HRK=, GBP=, EURCHF=, CHFRON=, CAD=, =USD, EUR=

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Channels.India - BHEL. Anticipated and happened

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also.

CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS

REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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Orpheus heads to India


Orpheus heads to Mumbai for Bombay Stock Exchange Training.

BSE Training Institute

Launches a Two Day Programme on

“Investing with Time and Performance Cycles”
(The cyclicality of markets can be quantified. This can change the investing process.)

Date: 27 and 28 August 2010, Friday and Saturday

Timing: 9.30 am to 5.30 pm

Programme Aim: The aim of the program is to illustrate the mathematical and patterned nature of ‘Time’ and how it can be used to understand asset performance, the big picture and initiate new investment approaches.

The Time Cycle: Market Cyclicality, History of Time Cycles Research, Exponentially in Nature Fractals, Exponentiality in Time, Time Triads, Time Fractals, Cycles of Gold, Interest Rate, Inflation, Kondratieff Wave – The missing link, Forecasts – Oil, Global Outlook, Indian markets from a Time Cycle perspective, Intermarket Cycles.

Performance Cycles: Price divergence between prices, sectors, regions, assets is cyclical and quantifiable, Intermarket analysis, behavioral finance, Socionomics, Black Swan Randomness, Sam Stovall Sector Rotation, Robert Arnott – growth and value divergence, Profiting from price divergence and Outlook and cases.

Who can attend?

Derivatives dealers, Stock brokers, High Net Worth Investors, Custodians, Mutual Funds, Portfolio Managers, Insurance Companies, Banks, Financial Institutions, Corporates, Capital Market Researchers, Forex Traders, Commodity Traders, Energy and Commodity Analysts, Hedge Funds and Management students.

Orpheus Capitals, Global Alternative Research Company

Orpheus Capitals is listed with Integrity Research Associates, New York as an independent researcher. The research startup is headed by Market Technicians from Market Technicians Association, New York. The research outfit publishes 300 research reports internationally on Reuters and Thomson platforms monthly. The coverage includes global equity, metals, forex, agro, energy, bonds and green assets. The forecasts cover asset classes across time frames. Orpheus is the only company in India, C&E Europe to do intraday research on indices, futures and various other assets.

Speaker Profile: Mukul Pal

Mukul Pal, Co-Founder, Orpheus Capitals is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance. Orpheus Research is registered with Integrity Research Associates, New York as an independent research company.

He is a member of the Market Technicians association. He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005.  He is also an authorized investment consultant by the CNVM (Romanian Capital Market Regulator).

Mukul has actively researched on ‘Time’ and has written some seminal paper on the mathematical hierarchy of time. His first paper on performance cycles was published in the Kyoto Economics Journal in Mar 2009. Recently his paper on Time Fractals was accepted by the ERN History of Economics Journal and Capital Markets Market Microstructure eJournal (SSRN Economics Research Network).

Time Fractals attempt to explain the exponentiality in nature and markets. The subject has wide application even outside capital markets. He has written extensively on derivatives markets, sentiment indicators, alternative research, investment psychology, commodities and global assets from 1997 till date for local and international publications like the Business Standard (India), The Economic Times (India), E-Mecklai (India), Yahoo Business, Economistul (Romania), Ziarul Financiar (Romania), Bucharest Daily News (Romania), Business Week (Romania), Technically Speaking (MTA Newsletter USA), Euro Physics letters (France) etc.

Mukul is also an active trainer and speaker. He has conducted training programs for Thomson Reuters (Romania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Albania), Oil and Gas Forum Romania, Bombay Stock Exchange, SIBIU Derivatives Exchange, Bucharest Stock Exchange, Academy of Economic Studies. Orpheus CAPITALS covering India, CEE region and global assets including Metals, Energy, Alternative Energy, Agro Commodities, Bonds, Interest rates and Elf’s across multiple time frames for investing and trading. Orpheus research reports are published internationally on Reuters, Thompson, Yahoo Finance and Business Standard India.

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English (Programme Details)-2
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Orpheus in Kathmandu

Orpheus is in Kathmandu for a conference on Performance Cycles for the Foreign Exchange & Money Dealers Association of Nepal (FEDAN)

Trading Forex with Performance Cycles
Hotel Radisson, Kathmandu, Nepal
30 August 2010

Performance is cyclical and is based on time cyclicality. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. All of Euro vs. Dollar, Indian Rupee vs. USD, Oil vs. Natural Gas, Gold vs. Platinum and Dow vs. S&p500 have performance cyclicality in them. The presentation will introduce the subject and illustrate how stock picking and trading strategies can be built around the technique. Relative performance is also referred to as Alpha.

Kathmandu, Nepal
09:00-10:30 Performance Cycles
10:45 – 12:15 Elliott and Fibonacci
12:30 – 13:30 Momentum and Cycles
14:30 – 15:30 Target calculation and Cases

Orpheus Capitals, Global Alternative Research Company

Orpheus Capitals is listed with Integrity Research Associates, New York as an independent researcher. The research startup is headed by Market Technicians from Market Technicians Association, New York. The research outfit publishes 300 research reports internationally on Reuters and Thomson platforms monthly. The coverage includes global equity, metals, forex, agro, energy, bonds and green assets. The forecasts cover asset classes across time frames. Orpheus is the only company in India, C&E Europe to do intraday research on indices, futures and various other assets.

Speaker Profile: Mukul Pal

Mukul Pal, Co-Founder, Orpheus Capitals is a Chartered Market Technician, MBA Finance. Orpheus Research is registered with Integrity Research Associates, New York as an independent research company.

He is a member of the Market Technicians association. He has more than a decade of Capital Market experience dealing with derivatives and global assets. He has worked for Bombay Stock Exchange, multinational Banks and brokerage houses in leading research positions before starting on his own in 2005. He is also an authorized investment consultant by the CNVM (Romanian Capital Market Regulator).

Mukul has actively researched on ‘Time’ and has written some seminal paper on the mathematical hierarchy of time. His first paper on performance cycles was published in the Kyoto Economics Journal in Mar 2009. Recently his paper on Time Fractals was accepted by the ERN History of Economics Journal and Capital Markets Market Microstructure eJournal (SSRN Economics Research Network).

Time Fractals attempt to explain the exponentiality in nature and markets. The subject has wide application even outside capital markets. He has written extensively on derivatives markets, sentiment indicators, alternative research, investment psychology, commodities and global assets from 1997 till date for local and international publications like the Business Standard (India), The Economic Times (India), E-Mecklai (India), Yahoo Business, Economistul (Romania), Ziarul Financiar (Romania), Bucharest Daily News (Romania), Business Week (Romania), Technically Speaking (MTA Newsletter USA), Euro Physics letters (France) etc.

Mukul is also an active trainer and speaker. He has conducted training programs for Thomson Reuters (Romania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Albania), Oil and Gas Forum Romania, Bombay Stock Exchange, SIBIU Derivatives Exchange, Bucharest Stock Exchange, Academy of Economic Studies. Orpheus CAPITALS covering India, CEE region and global assets including Metals, Energy, Alternative Energy, Agro Commodities, Bonds, Interest rates and Elf’s across multiple time frames for investing and trading. Orpheus research reports are published internationally on Reuters, Thompson, Yahoo Finance and Business Standard India.

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Waves.India - CNXIT. Prices break the neckline

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Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009
Alpha India

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

Orpheus India Research

WAVES.INDIA is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK

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Channels.India - Infosys. Anticipated and happened

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also.

CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS

REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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