Channels.BVB - Early Economic Update - Patterns

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CHANNELS.BVB is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and focuses on stocks more than Indices. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.ROM and CHANNELS.ROM are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers just BVB stocks all mid cap and small cap.

CHANNELS.BVB on MONDAY covers the Early Economic Sector cycle including Financials and Discretionary sector stocks. REUTERS RIC - (BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, BRKU.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF5.BX, BCCA.BX, ASAG.BX, FLAA.BX, EFOR.BX, TUFE.BX, SIPA.BX, ELBU.BX, ERST.BX, IMPT.BX)

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Channels.India - Early economic anticipated and happened cases

HDFC DAILY Anticipated and happened Prices turn back from anticipated resistances near key 2,900 levels. Our first minor target lies at (x) wave lows and key FIB supports at 2,600. HDBK DAILY Anticipated and happened Prices violently pushed lower from our anticipated resistances at key 2,020 levels. Immediate targets lie at previous minor lows at key 1,800 levels.

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also.

CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS

REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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Rares Trif

It gives us immense pleasure to introduce Trif Rares, the contibuting columnist for the Waves Energy. Rares got interested in forex trading and followed it up with an early interest in technical analysis. While practicing technicals he covered many other global assets and found similar patterns and formations across global assets. This is when he moved to Elliott Wave analysis. Now he specializes in energy assets. Rares graduated in finance and followed it up with post graduate studies in management.  He combines Elliot Wave with classical technical analysis tools.  He correctly depicted the May 2010 top in Oil and is forecasting a large multi year bottom in natural gas. You can follow up his work on Orpheus Energy Research reports.

Previous Waves.oil reports
Ticks Global Report

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WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM-, .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N, IPNG, NG-P-CAL

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The Oil Algorithm

On one side we have computer algorithms, which are blamed for Dow 1000 point move, all the panic in volatility and the 10 dollar move on oil etc. On the other side we have the hands on Elliott approach, which does not need high number crunching computers. Orpheus has been covering Oil for since early 2005.

In May 2008 (oil made a high of 133) we wrote “The Oil Rocket”. We said “Nothing can rise exponentially, even if it’s OIL. The asset’s exponential rise is more an indication of an ending trend and not vice versa. The OIL rocket can never become a satellite, no asset can. And the almost ninety degree inclination to new highs is destined to collapse. Few Wall Street brokers looked at this as a great time to solicit mass mailing lists for OIL CALL options. Well we don’t subscribe to the OIL end era yet, but if the best broker suggests buying CALLS with such confidence, we definitely don’t know something he knows or something everybody knows. At this stage what we can see is a sentiment euphoria which is hard to sustain. The five legged fractal structure both starting 1999 till 2008 and the smaller five legged sub structure starting in 2007 seems complete. We don’t see OIL above $ 125 and it’s time for PUT and not a CALL. Oil should push to sub dollar 70 levels.”

While we talked about 70 dollars Oil while it was at all time highs, we also mentioned that after the fall the move up to 300 should begin. In the feature “Oil 2012” carried on 15 Aug 2008 we said. “Oil is headed to 300 and higher till 2015.”

Oil fell to sub 40 in Dec 2008. In our 18 Dec feature on WTM vs. Brent we said “Above 40 reversal on OIL does give us a good turn around case. And we continue to look higher on OIL.” 26 Jan 2009, in “Oil ready to reverse” we said “50 is a psychological level and a push back up to 50 is an intermediate reversal. A move up on OIL could push OIL up in higher territory near 70.” Oil move up till Jun 2009. In Aug 2009 “Gasoline Futures” we said, “Oil is completing a flat and after a dip down should push up to new highs”. Successive reports on Oil on 28 Oct, 20 Oct mentioned “Prices should continue to push higher till 90”. Dips around 75 levels were pointed out as corrections. 16 Nov 2009 we said “ The sub minor correction should end soon and push higher to 85-90 levels”.

On 23 Nov 2009 update we mentioned that a termination pattern ending diagonal was in. On 14 Dec we said “another attempt at 80-90 prices before turning lower or is the top already in.” 10 Jan 2010 we talked about potential oil topping with targets back to 60. 9 Feb, “Chevron tops at 80” was released. 17 Mar 2010 we said “Oil was completing wave B up after which the C wave down should begin” 14 Apr “Oil remains topping”. 28 Apr “Intermediate reversal is here”. 02 May Oil topped at 86 in our anticipated resistance zone 85-90 and pushed lower in one week 10 dollars lower to 75.

The current ongoing move on Oil should move to anticipated targets till 60. As ending diagonal formations generally retrace completely. This should be our last and best opportunity to buy Oil for a move up till 2015. Oil 300 remains our preferred view. What this means for economics? What this means for society? What this means for inflation is again not too hard to understand. You really don’t need an algorithm for this.

For regular updates on Oil and other energy assets subscribe to Orpheus Energy Research. Enjoy the latest WAVES.OIL

Trif Rares, the contibuting columnist for the Waves Energy. Rares got interested in forex trading and followed it up with an early interest in technical analysis. While practicing technicals he covered many other global assets and found similar patterns and formations across global assets. This is when he moved to Elliott Wave analysis. Now he specializes in energy assets. Rares graduated in finance and followed it up with post graduate studies in management.  He combines Elliot Wave with classical technical analysis tools.  He correctly depicted the May 2010 top in Oil and is forecasting a large multi year bottom in natural gas. You can follow up his work on Ticks Global and Orpheus Energy Research reports.

Orpheus Columnists

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WAVES.OIL is a perspective product published once a week. The report covers BRENT, WTM, XLE (Energy SPDR), top energy stocks, Natural Gas and related FUTURES. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools and sentiment indicators. REUTERS RICS: BRT-, WTM-, .XLE , CVX.N, XOM.N, IPNG, NG-P-CAL

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Romanian Sentiment Review - The Lucky Analyst

This will not be the first time we will hear, or overhear that analysts at Orpheus just got lucky. We got you the Mar 2009 low when the markets were reeling under negative contagion and we got you the top with the current ongoing fall in May 2010 and now if you say that we got lucky because of Greece or Dow or Dollar, you are still living that causal explanation that lacks predictive value. Behavioral finance puts luck as a hot hand fallacy. We can never get you 100% accuracy, but what we have proved over a year of studying sentiment readings through RSR and almost five years of alternative research at Orpheus, that markets are more predictable than they seem. You have to be able to understand extremes.

This is what we said on 16 April in our RSR feature on Rational extreme

“Extremes are never rational and buying at extremes need preparation and knowledge. Extremes by very nature are overstretched and irrational. Now if we look at Romanian markets, its not just RSR readings but classic conventional momentum that suggest extremes. Internet bloggers have already started getting vocal proving how wrong the experts are. Volatility indicators that are traditionally known to gauge fear are at all time lows across global equity regions. This all proves that we are living the time of rational extremes. Mar 2009 and Oct 2008 when we mentioned about reversal and potential buying opportunities, the majority was rationalizing negativity. Now the market participants are rationalizing positivity. Our best wishes are with the majority. What we see is a non confirming extreme on Advance Decline, Yale Hirsch negative cycle seasonality and all time extreme bullish readings on RSR across indices and time frames. Of the experts are not the bullish. But who cares about experts anyway? What does an expert know? The Confidence index at all-time max (40). We continue to look at a topping market despite market’s inability to reverse in March.”

This is a clear case of anticipated and happened. Markets move in a cyclical rhythm and mathematical order. And all the collapse of Euro, Greece Riots, Romanian state punishing the pensioners is an order that was predictable after the overhang of excesses made from 2000 till 2007. Few of our readers would understand that credit up cycles look exciting and down cycles very painful. Till we built back the character and value we lost in good times, the down cycle will pain and surprise.

Emotional control now has to also learn to prepare for surprise. The best part of all this crisis, humility comes back, inefficiency separates from efficiency, new entry points emerge, learning increases and a small percentage of the market participants realize that waiting for the state to take care of your pensions is a bad idea and some analysts are not lucky, but objective. The market readings on RSR on 6 month basis continue to be high. BETFI 20,000 remains a distinct possibility. Trade safe and get ready for a life without Euro.

Enjoy the latest Romanian Sentiment Review.

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A Sentiment Index reading can assist to measure these extremities in mood and potential market turns. Survey respondents will not only benefit from the interpretation and indicator readings but also will be invited for regular training seminars on sentiment indicators and provided relevant literature. Orpheus Capitals and Prognosis.ro are two independent research companies publishing the Romanian Sentiment Review. RSR is a sentiment index based on the survey of market players. The respondents are queried on a host of areas including time frame of expectations, bullish and bearish bias and sectoral preferences. The data is then analysed to create various sentiment indices. The readings of the various indices explains the market sentiment and market direction. We also furnish the sentiment data on a periodical basis to financial institutions, fund managers and brokers for further research and investment.

PROGNOSIS and ORPHEUS RESEARCH

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Channels.BVB - Late Economic Update - Momentum

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CHANNELS.BVB is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and focuses on stocks more than Indices. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.ROM and CHANNELS.ROM are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers just BVB stocks all mid cap and small cap.

CHANNELS.BVB on FRIDAY covers the Late Economic Sector cycle including Energy, Staples, Pharma, Utilities and Chemicals sector stocks.
REUTERS RICS SNPP.BX, ROMP.BX, OILT.BX, PTRI.BX, PEXI.BX, ENPL.BX, TSEL.BX, MOPN.BX, BERS.BX, ALUM.BX, OLTC.BX, ALRO.BX, OTSP.BX, AMSL.BX, AZOM.BX, VNCA.BX, PPLS.BX, MJMR.BX, SIZA.BX, CBCM.BX, ZIMC.BX, PCLR.BX, ATBE.BX, SCDB.BX, BIOF.BX, DAFR.BRQ

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Channels.India - Late economic update

GRASIM DAILY Anticipated and happened Prices continue to push lower in an impulsive structure down as anticipated. We could see a corrective iv wave up now. RELIANCE DAILY The subminor impulse down is heading to our anticipated supports at psychological 1,000 levels. Performance cycles have topped.

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

CHANNELS.INDIA is our second perspective product published on MONDAY, WEDNESDAY and FRIDAY. The report uses conventional technical tools and covers most top traded stocks. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. WAVES.INDIA, CHANNELS.INDIA are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers the other mid cap and small cap stocks also.

CHANNELS.INDIA carries the Early Economic cycle sector components, which includes FINANCIAL and DISCRETIONARY sector stocks, the Mid Economics cycles sector which includes INDUSTRIAL sector stocks and the Late Economic Sector cycle including ENERGY, STAPLES, UTILITIES, PHARMA, CHEMICALS sector stocks. REUTERS EARLY ECONOMIC RICS DLF.NS, HDFC.NS, HDBK.NS, ICBK.NS, SBI.NS, INFY.NS, TCS.NS, MAHM.NS, UNTE.NS, TITN.NS

REUTERS MID ECONOMIC RICS ASOK.NS, TAMO.NS, CROM.NS, BHEL.NS, LART.NS, MTNL.NS, IDEA.NS, BRTI.NS, RLCM.NS, TATA.NS REUTERS LATE ECONOMIC RICS ONGC.NS, RLIN.NS, NTPC.NS, ACC.NS, HALC.NS, TISC.NS, ABUJ.NS, CIPL.NS, RANB.NS, ITC.NS

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Anna Maria Michesan

It gives us immense pleasure to introduce Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the Waves India and Head of India Research. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed.  Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009

ACCURACY.INDIA.REPORT.20110.PART-I

ACCURACY.INDIA.REPORT.20110.PART-II

ACCURACY.INDIA.REPORT.20110.PART-III

ACCURACY.INDIA.REPORT.20110.PART IV

ACCURACY.INDIA.REPORT.20110.PART-V

India Accuracy

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ORPHEUS INDIA RESEARCH

WAVES.IND is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK

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Waves.Rom - BETNG. As (5) intermediate wave completes, prices reverse.

WAVES.ROM is a perspective product published on TUESDAY’S and THURSDAY’S. The report highlights Romanian Stock Market top three Equity Indices viz. the top ten blue chip BET Index (.BETI), BET Composite (.BETC), the Financial Index BETFI (.BETFI) and the local currency RON (EURRON=, RON=). The products covers the top ten BET component stocks. (ROMP.BX, SNPP.BX, BATR.BX, BRDX.BX, TSEL.BX, ATBE.BX, BRKU.BX, BIOF.BX, IMPT.BX, TUBU.BX) and all the components of BETFI Financial Index(SIF2.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF1.BX, SIF4.BX) are covered in the report. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers. WAVES.ROM, CHANNELS.BVB and CHANNELS.RASDAQ are bundled together as PERSPECTIVE products. Unlike WAVES which focuses more on blue chips, CHANNELS covers all the BVB and RASDAQ stocks.

Performance cycles is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a range say from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

REUTERS COVERAGE .BETFI, TUBU.BX, TSEL.BX, SNPP.BX, SIF5.BX, SIF4.BX, SIF3.BX, SIF2.BX, SIF1.BX, ROMP.BX, IMPT.BX, BRKU.BX, BRDX.BX, BIOF.BX, BATR.BX, ATBE.BX

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Waves.India - Anticipated and happened cases on subminor

Two weeks back we stated that the intermediate reversal on the Indian markets is here. Markets were showing clear signs of weakness and exhaustion. In the current issue of Waves India we have illustrated our anticipated and happened cases on the subminor timeframe.

Our first subminor target on Nifty at 5,100 levels was hit. We are now looking lower till psychological 5,000 levels or even lower. Nsebank and CNXIT have developed Double Top patterns and now broke neckline supports. The subminor structure looks like an ongoing impulse down on most of the Indian indices. Our preferred negative scenario is happening.

Enjoy the latest Waves.India.

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Michesan Anna-Maria, the columnist for the WAVES.INDIA weekly. Anna discovered her interest of markets immediately after completing her graduate studies in Economics. She followed it up with post graduate studies in corporate finance. A host of research work in behavioral finance, option strategies and quantifying market sentiment followed. Anna covers Indian equity and combines Elliott, Time Fractals and Time Analytics to deliver accuracy across time frames. To review some of her work, check out the annual India accuracy report 2009.

India Accuracy Report 2009

‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by Orpheus Capitals. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves from 1 to 30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick.

ORPHEUS INDIA RESEARCH

WAVES.IND is a perspective product published on Tuesday and Thursday. The report highlights Indian Stock Market top sectoral Indices and Sensex (BSE 30) viz. BSEOIL, BSESC (Small Cap), BSEMC (Mid Cap), BSEHC (BSE Health Care), BSEPHARMA (Pharmaceuticals), BSECG (Capital Goods), BSEBANK (Banking), CNXIT (Technology), BSEFMCG (FMCG), BSEAUTO (Auto) etc.. The product also covers all the 30 Sensex components. The product highlights Primary (Multi Month) and Intermediate (Multi Week) price trends. The report illustrates key price levels, price targets, price projections and time turn windows. The product uses Elliott waves, traditional technical analysis tools, sentiment indicators and other alternative research tools like INTERMARKET to spot outperformers.

COVERAGE: REUTERS RICS. INDICES. .BSEBANK, .BSEOIL, .NSEI, .BSECG, .BSESN, .BSEAUTO, .CNXIT, .NSEBANK, CITc1, IFc1, .NSEBANK

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